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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 3:30 PM ET · Final Duke 31, Illinois 27

Duke at Illinois

Illinois −8.5 at our first look, −6 at kickoff. ACC vs. Big Ten.

Conditions · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL): At kickoff: 89°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Duke 0.0 · Illinois 0.0. Market: moved 2.5 toward Duke.

Landed: Duke 31, Illinois 27. Duke covered the closing line (Illinois −6). The move toward Duke was right. 58 points, over the closing total of 51.5.

Duke Blue Devils 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Illinois Fighting Illini 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Illinois lineIllinois Fighting Illini spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Illinois.
−9−8−7−6Opening line−8.5Market move, no reported newsFri 3:55 AM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+2Closing line−6
−9−8−7−6Opening line−8.5Market move, no reported newsFri 3:55 AM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+2Closing line−6

Final: Duke 31, Illinois 27. Illinois missed the closing number by 10.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−8.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 4, 3:55 AM ET+0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 5, 9:55 PM ET+2
Closing line−6
What moved the Illinois moneylineIllinois Fighting Illini moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Illinois.
−178−194−213−233−257Opening line−255Market move, no reported newsFri 3:55 AM−224Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM−171Less than the spread implies−203Closing line−203
−178−194−213−233−257Opening line−255Market move, no reported newsFri 3:55 AM−224Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM−171Less than the spread implies−203Closing line−203
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line71.8% (−255)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 4, 3:55 AM ET69.1% (−224)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 5, 9:55 PM ET63.1% (−171)
Less than the spread implies67.0% (−203)
Closing line67.0% (−203)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5152535455Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM−3Closing line51.5
5152535455Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM−3Closing line51.5

Final: 58 points, over the closing total of 51.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 5, 9:55 PM ET-3
Closing line51.5

Every Book · Illinois side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−6 −109−2351.43 67.0%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−6 −108−2301.43 66.9%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−5.5 −115−2351.43 67.0%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−6 −110−2351.43 67.0%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−6 −109−2401.42 67.6%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−6 −110−2351.43 67.0%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−5.5 −113−2151.47 64.4%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−6.5 −105−2451.41 68.3%51Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−6 −105−2301.43 66.9%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−6 −106−2451.41 68.3%51Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−6 −110−2441.41 67.6%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−6.5 −105−2251.44 66.8%51.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.