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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 7:30 PM ET · Final Iowa State 13, Iowa 16

Iowa State at 20Iowa

Iowa −13.5 at our first look, −14 at kickoff. Big 12 vs. Big Ten.

Conditions · Kinnick Stadium: At kickoff: 80°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Iowa State 0.0 · Iowa 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward Iowa.

Landed: Iowa State 13, Iowa 16. Iowa State covered the closing line (Iowa −14). The move toward Iowa was wrong. 29 points, under the closing total of 42.5.

Iowa State Cyclones 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Iowa Hawkeyes 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Iowa lineIowa Hawkeyes spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Iowa.
−14−13Opening line−13.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−1Closing line−14
−14−13Opening line−13.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−1Closing line−14

Final: Iowa State 13, Iowa 16. Iowa missed the closing number by 11.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−13.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 1, 1:55 PM ET+0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET-1
Closing line−14
What moved the Iowa moneylineIowa Hawkeyes moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Iowa.
−456−488−525Opening line−506Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM−488Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−525Less than the spread implies−471Closing line−471
−456−488−525Opening line−506Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM−488Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−525Less than the spread implies−471Closing line−471
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line83.5% (−506)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 1, 1:55 PM ET83.0% (−488)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET84.0% (−525)
Less than the spread implies82.5% (−471)
Closing line82.5% (−471)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
40414243Opening line40.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−0.5Closing line42.5
40414243Opening line40.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−0.5Closing line42.5

Final: 29 points, under the closing total of 42.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line40.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 1, 1:55 PM ET+2.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 5:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line42.5

Every Book · Iowa side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−14 −110−6001.17 82.5%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−14 −112−6001.17 82.2%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−14.5 −102−6501.15 82.9%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−14 −108−6001.17 82.5%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−14 −112−6751.15 83.4%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−14 −110−6501.15 83.3%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers−14.5 −110−7151.14 83.1%42Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−14 −110−6001.17 82.4%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−14 −105−6001.17 81.8%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−14 −106−6001.17 82.4%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−14 −110−7521.13 84.1%42.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−14 −110−6001.17 82.5%42.5Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.