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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 11:00 PM ET · Final Louisiana 30, USC 49

Louisiana at 19USC

USC −28.5 at our first look, −31 at kickoff. Sun Belt vs. Big Ten.

Conditions · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum: At kickoff: 72°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Louisiana 0.0 · USC 0.0. Market: moved 2.5 toward USC.

Landed: Louisiana 30, USC 49. Louisiana covered the closing line (USC −31). The move toward USC was wrong. 79 points, over the closing total of 59.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 0.0

No news that moves the number.

USC Trojans 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the USC lineUSC Trojans spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against USC.
−31−30−29−28Opening line−28.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line−31
−31−30−29−28Opening line−28.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line−31

Final: Louisiana 30, USC 49. USC missed the closing number by 12.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−28.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 3:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 7, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line−31
What moved the USC moneylineUSC Trojans moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward USC.
−1900−2400Opening line−2281Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2281Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−2281Price-only move−1861Closing line−1861
−1900−2400Opening line−2281Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2281Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−2281Price-only move−1861Closing line−1861
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line95.8% (−2281)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 3:55 PM ET95.8% (−2281)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 7, 1:55 PM ET95.8% (−2281)
Price-only move94.9% (−1861)
Closing line94.9% (−1861)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
596061626364Opening line63.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−3Market move, no reported newsTue 11:55 AM−1.5Closing line59
596061626364Opening line63.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−3Market move, no reported newsTue 11:55 AM−1.5Closing line59

Final: 79 points, over the closing total of 59.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line63.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 PM ET-3
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 8, 11:55 AM ET-1.5
Closing line59

Every Book · USC side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−31 −110−100001.01 94.9%59Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings−30.5 −112−50001.02 94.9%58.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel−30.5 −115−100001.01 96.6%58.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM−30.5 −110−100001.01 96.3%59.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars−29.5 −120—— —58Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics−31 −110−70001.01 96.2%58.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers−31 −117—— —59Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline−31.5 −105−100001.01 94.9%59Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada−31 −105−100001.01 94.4%58.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig−31.5 +103−100001.01 94.9%59.5Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie−31 −110−181491.01 94.3%59Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS−31 −105—— —59Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.