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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 6:00 PM ET · Final Memphis 20, Boise State 38

Memphis at 23Boise State

Boise State −6.5 at our first look, −8.5 at kickoff. American Athletic vs. Pac-12.

Conditions · Albertsons Stadium: At kickoff: 88°F, wind 7 mph (gusts 19), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Memphis 0.0 · Boise State 0.0. Market: moved 2 toward Boise State.

Landed: Memphis 20, Boise State 38. Boise State covered the closing line (Boise State −8.5). The move toward Boise State was right. 58 points, over the closing total of 55.

Memphis Tigers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Boise State Broncos 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Boise State lineBoise State Broncos spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Boise State.
−9−8−7−6Opening line−6.5Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−1.5Closing line−8.5
−9−8−7−6Opening line−6.5Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−1.5Closing line−8.5

Final: Memphis 20, Boise State 38. Boise State beat the closing number by 9.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−6.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 3, 5:55 PM ET-0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 3:55 AM ET-1.5
Closing line−8.5
What moved the Boise State moneylineBoise State Broncos moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Boise State.
−285−317−355−400Opening line−276Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−297Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−385Less than the spread implies−292Closing line−292
−285−317−355−400Opening line−276Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−297Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−385Less than the spread implies−292Closing line−292
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line73.4% (−276)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 3, 5:55 PM ET74.8% (−297)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 3:55 AM ET79.4% (−385)
Less than the spread implies74.5% (−292)
Closing line74.5% (−292)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
52535455Opening line54.5Market move, no reported newsFri 3:55 PM−2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+3Closing line55
52535455Opening line54.5Market move, no reported newsFri 3:55 PM−2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+3Closing line55

Final: 58 points, over the closing total of 55.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 4, 3:55 PM ET-2.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 11:55 AM ET+3
Closing line55

Every Book · Boise State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.5%55Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−9.5 −108−3601.28 75.1%54.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−9.5 −105−3351.30 73.8%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−8.5 −115−3501.29 74.5%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−8.5 −113−3601.28 74.8%54.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.5%55Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers−8.5 −110−3601.28 74.3%55Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−8 −110−3301.30 73.8%54.5Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−9.5 −110−3601.28 74.8%55Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−8.5 −106−3301.30 73.8%54.5Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−9 −110−3601.28 74.6%55Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−8 −110−3301.30 74.0%54.5Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.