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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 11:59 PM ET · Final New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29

New Mexico State at Hawai'i

Hawai'i −11.5 at our first look, −7 at kickoff. Conference USA vs. Mountain West.

Conditions · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex: At kickoff: 81°F, wind 9 mph (gusts 24), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: New Mexico State 0.0 · Hawai'i 0.0. Market: moved 4.5 toward New Mexico State.

Landed: New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29. Hawai'i covered the closing line (Hawai'i −7). The move toward New Mexico State was wrong. 48 points, under the closing total of 50.

New Mexico State Aggies 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Hawai'i lineHawai'i Rainbow Warriors spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Hawai'i.
−12−11−10−9−8−7Opening line−11.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM+2.5Closing line−7
−12−11−10−9−8−7Opening line−11.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM+2.5Closing line−7

Final: New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29. Hawai'i beat the closing number by 3.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−11.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 PM ET+2
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 8, 9:55 AM ET+2.5
Closing line−7
What moved the Hawai'i moneylineHawai'i Rainbow Warriors moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Hawai'i.
−194−213−233−257−285−317Opening line−327Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−269Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−191Less than the spread implies−261Closing line−261
−194−213−233−257−285−317Opening line−327Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−269Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−191Less than the spread implies−261Closing line−261
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line76.6% (−327)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 PM ET72.9% (−269)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 8, 9:55 AM ET65.6% (−191)
Less than the spread implies72.3% (−261)
Closing line72.3% (−261)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
505152Opening line51.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM−0.5Closing line50
505152Opening line51.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM−0.5Closing line50

Final: 48 points, under the closing total of 50.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 3:55 PM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 8, 9:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line50

Every Book · Hawai'i side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−7 −112−3101.32 72.3%50Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings−7 −112−2981.34 71.8%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel−7.5 +100−2851.35 71.0%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM−7.5 −108−2951.34 71.7%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars−7 −114−3101.32 72.3%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics−7.5 +100−3101.32 72.6%50Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers−7 −115−2951.34 70.5%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline−7 −110−3101.32 72.7%50Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada−7.5 −105−3101.32 72.9%50Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig−7 −115−3101.32 72.7%50Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie−7 −115−3101.32 72.0%50Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS−7 −115−3101.32 72.9%50.5Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.