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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 10:00 PM ET · Final North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32

North Dakota State at Air Force

Air Force +6.5 at our first look, +1.5 at kickoff. Mountain West game.

Conditions · Falcon Stadium: At kickoff: 65°F, wind 6 mph (gusts 15), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: North Dakota State 0.0 · Air Force 0.0. Market: moved 5 toward Air Force.

Landed: North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32. North Dakota State covered the closing line (Air Force +1.5). The move toward Air Force was wrong. 70 points, over the closing total of 48.5.

North Dakota State Bison 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Air Force Falcons 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Air Force lineAir Force Falcons spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Air Force.
+1+2+3+4+5+6+7Opening line+6.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−3Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 AM−2Closing line+1.5
+2+4+6Opening line+6.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−3Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 AM−2Closing line+1.5

Final: North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32. Air Force missed the closing number by 4.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+6.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 5:55 PM ET-3
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 7, 7:55 AM ET-2
Closing line+1.5
What moved the Air Force moneylineAir Force Falcons moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Air Force.
+233+186+150+122−100Opening line+213Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+136Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 AM−105Less than the spread implies+111Closing line+111
+233+186+150+122−100Opening line+213Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+136Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 AM−105Less than the spread implies+111Closing line+111
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line31.9% (+213)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 5:55 PM ET42.4% (+136)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 7, 7:55 AM ET51.2% (−105)
Less than the spread implies47.4% (+111)
Closing line47.4% (+111)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
47484950Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsSat 9:55 PM+1Closing line48.5
47484950Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsSat 9:55 PM+1Closing line48.5

Final: 70 points, over the closing total of 48.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 3:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 12, 9:55 PM ET+1
Closing line48.5

Every Book · Air Force side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+1.5 −110+1022.02 47.4%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings+1.5 −105+1022.02 47.4%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel+2.5 −120+1022.02 47.4%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM+1.5 −110+1002.00 47.8%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars+1.5 −110+1052.05 46.8%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics+1.5 −110+1002.00 47.8%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers+1.5 −110+1022.02 46.9%47.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline+2 −110+1032.03 47.2%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada+2 −115+1002.00 47.8%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig+2 −106+1032.03 47.2%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie+1.5 −110+1002.00 47.5%48Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS+1.5 −110+1052.05 46.8%48Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.