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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 12:00 PM ET · Final South Florida 28, Army 24

South Florida at Army

Army −1.5 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. American Athletic game.

Conditions · Michie Stadium: At kickoff: 72°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: South Florida 0.0 · Army 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Army.

Landed: South Florida 28, Army 24. South Florida covered the closing line (Army −3). The move toward Army was wrong. 52 points, over the closing total of 45.5.

South Florida Bulls 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Army Black Knights 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Army lineArmy Black Knights spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Army.
−4−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−2Market move, no reported newsSat 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line−3
−4−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−2Market move, no reported newsSat 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line−3

Final: South Florida 28, Army 24. Army missed the closing number by 7.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−1.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 12, 11:55 AM ET+0.5
Closing line−3
What moved the Army moneylineArmy Black Knights moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Army.
−108−117−127−138−150−163Opening line−109Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−156Market move, no reported newsSat 11:55 AM−127Price-only move−148Closing line−148
−108−117−127−138−150−163Opening line−109Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−156Market move, no reported newsSat 11:55 AM−127Price-only move−148Closing line−148
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.2% (−109)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET61.0% (−156)
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 12, 11:55 AM ET56.0% (−127)
Price-only move59.7% (−148)
Closing line59.7% (−148)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4648505254Opening line54.5Market move, no reported newsFri 3:55 PM−5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−4Closing line45.5
4648505254Opening line54.5Market move, no reported newsFri 3:55 PM−5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM−4Closing line45.5

Final: 52 points, over the closing total of 45.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 4, 3:55 PM ET-5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET-4
Closing line45.5

Every Book · Army side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −115−1641.61 59.7%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−3 −118−1661.60 60.0%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−3.5 −105−1761.57 61.1%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−3.5 −105−1751.57 60.4%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−3 −118−1641.61 59.7%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics−3 −115−1601.62 59.1%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−4 −110−1801.56 61.0%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−3 −115−1551.65 58.8%46Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−3 −115−1601.62 59.1%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−3 −111−1551.65 58.8%46Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−3 −110−1771.56 60.8%46Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−3 −115−1551.65 58.7%46Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.