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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 3:30 PM ET · Final UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12

UCF at 25Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh −8.5 at our first look, −7 at kickoff. Big 12 vs. ACC.

Conditions · Acrisure Stadium: At kickoff: 83°F, wind 8 mph, rain.

The read at kickoff

News: UCF 0.0 · Pittsburgh 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward UCF.

Landed: UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12. UCF covered the closing line (Pittsburgh −7). The move toward UCF was right. 19 points, under the closing total of 55.5.

UCF Knights 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Pittsburgh Panthers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Pittsburgh linePittsburgh Panthers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Pittsburgh.
−9−8−7Opening line−8.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line−7
−9−8−7Opening line−8.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line−7

Final: UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12. Pittsburgh missed the closing number by 2.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−8.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 11:55 AM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 7, 3:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−7
What moved the Pittsburgh moneylinePittsburgh Panthers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Pittsburgh.
−223−233−245−257−270−285Opening line−276Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−239Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−222Less than the spread implies−244Closing line−244
−223−233−245−257−270−285Opening line−276Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−239Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−222Less than the spread implies−244Closing line−244
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line73.4% (−276)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 11:55 AM ET70.5% (−239)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 7, 3:55 PM ET68.9% (−222)
Less than the spread implies70.9% (−244)
Closing line70.9% (−244)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5152535455565758Opening line51.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+6Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM−2Closing line55.5
52545658Opening line51.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+6Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM−2Closing line55.5

Final: 19 points, under the closing total of 55.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET+6
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 8, 9:55 PM ET-2
Closing line55.5

Every Book · Pittsburgh side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−7 −114−2801.36 70.9%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−7 −110−2651.38 69.6%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−7.5 +100−2751.36 70.1%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−7 −115−2751.36 70.8%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−7 −114−2801.36 70.5%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−7 −115−2851.35 71.0%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−7 −114−3151.32 71.8%56Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−7 −115−2801.36 70.9%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−7 −115−2801.36 70.9%55Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−7 −111−2801.36 70.9%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−7 −110−3001.33 71.5%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−7 −115−2801.36 71.2%55Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.