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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 3:30 PM ET · Final UTSA 31, Texas State 26

UTSA at Texas State

Texas State −1.5 at our first look, −2.5 at kickoff. American Athletic vs. Pac-12.

Conditions · Bobcat Stadium (TX): At kickoff: 95°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: UTSA 0.0 · Texas State 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Texas State.

Landed: UTSA 31, Texas State 26. UTSA covered the closing line (Texas State −2.5). The move toward Texas State was wrong. 57 points, under the closing total of 65.5.

UTSA Roadrunners 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Texas State Bobcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Texas State lineTexas State Bobcats spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Texas State.
−3−2−1PK+1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+2.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−3.5Closing line−2.5
−3−2−1PK+1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+2.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−3.5Closing line−2.5

Final: UTSA 31, Texas State 26. Texas State missed the closing number by 7.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−1.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET+2.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 7, 11:55 AM ET-3.5
Closing line−2.5
What moved the Texas State moneylineTexas State Bobcats moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Texas State.
+127+117+108−100−108−117−127Opening line+107Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+129Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−102Price-only move−121Closing line−121
+127+117+108−100−108−117−127Opening line+107Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+129Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−102Price-only move−121Closing line−121
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.3% (+107)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET43.7% (+129)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 7, 11:55 AM ET50.6% (−102)
Price-only move54.7% (−121)
Closing line54.7% (−121)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
63646566Opening line63.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+2Closing line65.5
63646566Opening line63.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+2Closing line65.5

Final: 57 points, under the closing total of 65.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line63.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 5, 1:55 PM ET+2
Closing line65.5

Every Book · Texas State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −110−1341.75 54.7%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−2.5 −110−1351.74 55.1%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−2.5 −110−1341.75 54.8%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−2.5 −108−1351.74 54.7%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−2.5 −110−1321.76 54.7%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−2.5 −110−1301.77 54.3%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−2 −113−1291.78 53.5%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−2.5 −110−1351.74 55.3%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−2.5 −110−1301.77 54.3%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−2.5 −106−1351.74 55.3%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−2 −110−1291.78 53.6%65.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−2.5 −110−1351.74 55.3%65.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.