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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 8:00 PM ET · Final Arkansas State 7, TCU 31

Arkansas State at TCU

TCU −20.5 at our first look, −18.5 at kickoff. Sun Belt vs. Big 12.

Conditions · Amon G. Carter Stadium: At kickoff: 92°F, wind 10 mph (gusts 21), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Arkansas State 0.0 · TCU 0.0. Market: moved 2 toward Arkansas State.

Landed: Arkansas State 7, TCU 31. TCU covered the closing line (TCU −18.5). The move toward Arkansas State was wrong. 38 points, under the closing total of 56.5.

Arkansas State Red Wolves 0.0

No news that moves the number.

TCU Horned Frogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the TCU lineTCU Horned Frogs spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against TCU.
−21−20−19−18Opening line−20.5Market move, no reported newsTue 5:55 PM+2Closing line−18.5
−21−20−19−18Opening line−20.5Market move, no reported newsTue 5:55 PM+2Closing line−18.5

Final: Arkansas State 7, TCU 31. TCU beat the closing number by 5.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−20.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 15, 5:55 PM ET+2
Closing line−18.5
What moved the TCU moneylineTCU Horned Frogs moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward TCU.
−809−900Opening line−900Market move, no reported newsTue 5:55 PM−900Price-only move−809Closing line−809
−809−900Opening line−900Market move, no reported newsTue 5:55 PM−900Price-only move−809Closing line−809
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line90.0% (−900)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 15, 5:55 PM ET90.0% (−900)
Price-only move89.0% (−809)
Closing line89.0% (−809)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
55565758Opening line55.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−1Closing line56.5
55565758Opening line55.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−1Closing line56.5

Final: 38 points, under the closing total of 56.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line55.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET+2
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 3:55 PM ET-1
Closing line56.5

Every Book · TCU side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−18.5 −110−12811.08 89.0%56.5Sat 7:55 PM
DraftKings−18.5 −115−13501.07 89.3%56.5Sat 7:55 PM
FanDuel−19.5 −105−13001.08 88.9%56.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetMGM−19 −108−12001.08 89.5%56.5Sat 7:55 PM
Caesars−18.5 −113−14501.07 89.9%56Sat 7:55 PM
BetRivers−19 −113−14301.07 88.2%55.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetOnline−18.5 −110−12501.08 89.0%56.5Sat 7:55 PM
Bovada−19.5 −110−13001.08 88.5%56Sat 7:55 PM
LowVig−18.5 −106−12501.08 89.0%56.5Sat 7:55 PM
MyBookie−19 −110−12621.08 88.0%56.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetUS−18.5 −110−12501.08 89.3%56.5Sat 7:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.