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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 4:00 PM ET · Final Ball State 15, Liberty 51

Ball State at Liberty

Liberty −14.5 at our first look, −14.5 at kickoff. Mid-American vs. Conference USA.

Conditions · Williams Stadium (VA): At kickoff: 83°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Ball State 0.0 · Liberty 0.0. Market: line unchanged.

Landed: Ball State 15, Liberty 51. Liberty covered the closing line (Liberty −14.5). 66 points, over the closing total of 49.

Ball State Cardinals 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Liberty Flames 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Liberty lineLiberty Flames spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Liberty.

−14.5 no movement since tracking began Sun 9:55 AM ET.

What moved the Liberty moneylineLiberty Flames moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Liberty.
−488−525−567−614Opening line−599Price-only move−499Closing line−499
−488−525−567−614Opening line−599Price-only move−499Closing line−499
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line85.7% (−599)
Price-only move83.3% (−499)
Closing line83.3% (−499)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
50525456Opening line56.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−6.5Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM−1Closing line49
50525456Opening line56.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−6.5Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM−1Closing line49

Final: 66 points, over the closing total of 49.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line56.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET-6.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 9:55 AM ET-1
Closing line49

Every Book · Liberty side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−14.5 −110−6501.15 83.3%49Sat 3:55 PM
DraftKings−14.5 −108−6501.15 83.2%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
FanDuel−14.5 −104−6101.16 82.3%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetMGM−14 −112−6251.16 83.2%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
Caesars−14.5 −110−8501.12 85.8%55.5Sun 1:55 PM
BetRivers−15.5 −110−9101.11 85.4%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetOnline−14.5 −105−6501.15 83.3%48.5Sat 3:55 PM
Bovada−14.5 −110−7001.14 83.4%49Sat 3:55 PM
LowVig−14.5 −101−6501.15 83.3%48.5Sat 3:55 PM
MyBookie−14.5 −110−7251.14 83.6%49Sat 3:55 PM
BetUS−14 −115−6501.15 83.3%48.5Sat 3:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.