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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 12:00 PM ET · Final Bowling Green 7, Iowa State 55

Bowling Green at Iowa State

Iowa State −23.5 at our first look, −23 at kickoff. Mid-American vs. Big 12.

Conditions · Jack Trice Stadium: At kickoff: 75°F, wind 14 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Bowling Green 0.0 · Iowa State 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward Bowling Green.

Landed: Bowling Green 7, Iowa State 55. Iowa State covered the closing line (Iowa State −23). The move toward Bowling Green was wrong. 62 points, over the closing total of 43.5.

Bowling Green Falcons 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Iowa State Cyclones 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Iowa State lineIowa State Cyclones spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Iowa State.
−24−23Opening line−23.5Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM+0.5Closing line−23
−24−23Opening line−23.5Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM+0.5Closing line−23

Final: Bowling Green 7, Iowa State 55. Iowa State beat the closing number by 25.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−23.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 11:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−23
What moved the Iowa State moneylineIowa State Cyclones moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Iowa State.
−1150−1329Opening line−1349Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−1349Price-only move−1199Closing line−1199
−1150−1329Opening line−1349Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−1349Price-only move−1199Closing line−1199
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line93.1% (−1349)
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 11:55 PM ET93.1% (−1349)
Price-only move92.3% (−1199)
Closing line92.3% (−1199)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
434445464748Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−2Closing line43.5
434445464748Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−2Closing line43.5

Final: 62 points, over the closing total of 43.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line47.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 1:55 PM ET-2
Closing line43.5

Every Book · Iowa State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−23 −110−24001.04 92.3%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−22.5 −112−21001.05 92.0%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−23.5 −110−30001.03 92.6%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−23 −108−20001.05 92.5%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−22.5 −114−35001.03 92.7%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−23.5 −114−33351.03 92.4%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−23 −110−24001.04 92.2%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−22.5 −110−20001.05 90.9%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−23 −106−24001.04 92.2%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−23 −110−30301.03 92.1%44Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−23 −110−24001.04 92.3%43.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.