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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 7:30 PM ET · Final Colorado 7, Northwestern 41

Colorado at Northwestern

Northwestern −5.5 at our first look, −3.5 at kickoff. Big 12 vs. Big Ten.

Conditions · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium: At kickoff: 66°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Colorado 0.0 · Northwestern 0.0. Market: moved 2 toward Colorado.

Landed: Colorado 7, Northwestern 41. Northwestern covered the closing line (Northwestern −3.5). The move toward Colorado was wrong. 48 points, push the closing total of 48.

Colorado Buffaloes 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Northwestern Wildcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Northwestern lineNorthwestern Wildcats spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Northwestern.
−6−5−4−3Opening line−5.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−0.5Closing line−3.5
−6−5−4−3Opening line−5.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−0.5Closing line−3.5

Final: Colorado 7, Northwestern 41. Northwestern beat the closing number by 30.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−5.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 11, 11:55 AM ET+2.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 7:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line−3.5
What moved the Northwestern moneylineNorthwestern Wildcats moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Northwestern.
−138−150−163−178−194Opening line−188Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−135Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−146Less than the spread implies−164Closing line−164
−138−150−163−178−194Opening line−188Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−135Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−146Less than the spread implies−164Closing line−164
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line65.3% (−188)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 11, 11:55 AM ET57.5% (−135)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 7:55 PM ET59.3% (−146)
Less than the spread implies62.1% (−164)
Closing line62.1% (−164)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4546474849Opening line45.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+3Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line48
4546474849Opening line45.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+3Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line48

Final: 48 points, exactly on the closing total of 48.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line45.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET+3
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line48

Every Book · Northwestern side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3.5 −108−1801.56 62.1%48Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−3.5 −105−1751.57 60.9%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−3.5 −110−1781.56 61.2%48.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−3.5 −108−1851.54 61.9%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−3.5 −108−1761.57 61.4%47.5Fri 7:55 PM
BetRivers−3.5 −114−1901.53 62.1%48Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−3.5 −105−1801.56 62.3%48Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−3.5 −110−1801.56 62.1%48Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−3.5 −101−1801.56 62.3%48Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−3.5 −110−1911.52 62.5%48Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−3.5 −105−1801.56 62.1%48Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.