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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 11:00 PM ET · Final Fresno State 26, San José State 10

Fresno State at San José State

San José State +7.5 at our first look, +4.5 at kickoff. Pac-12 vs. Mountain West.

Conditions · CEFCU Stadium: At kickoff: 64°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Fresno State 0.0 · San José State 0.0. Market: moved 3 toward San José State.

Landed: Fresno State 26, San José State 10. Fresno State covered the closing line (San José State +4.5). The move toward San José State was wrong. 36 points, under the closing total of 47.5.

Fresno State Bulldogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

San José State Spartans 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the San José State lineSan José State Spartans spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against San José State.
+4+5+6+7+8Opening line+7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsSat 11:55 AM−2Closing line+4.5
+4+5+6+7+8Opening line+7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsSat 11:55 AM−2Closing line+4.5

Final: Fresno State 26, San José State 10. San José State missed the closing number by 11.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+7.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 7:55 PM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 19, 11:55 AM ET-2
Closing line+4.5
What moved the San José State moneylineSan José State Spartans moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward San José State.
+233+186+150Opening line+245Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM+212Market move, no reported newsSat 11:55 AM+147Less than the spread implies+178Closing line+178
+233+186+150Opening line+245Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM+212Market move, no reported newsSat 11:55 AM+147Less than the spread implies+178Closing line+178
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line29.0% (+245)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 7:55 PM ET32.1% (+212)
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 19, 11:55 AM ET40.5% (+147)
Less than the spread implies36.0% (+178)
Closing line36.0% (+178)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
47484950515253Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−3Closing line47.5
485052Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−3Closing line47.5

Final: 36 points, under the closing total of 47.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 3:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 11:55 PM ET-3
Closing line47.5

Every Book · San José State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+4.5 −109+1662.66 36.0%47.5Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings+4.5 −112+1642.64 36.3%47.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel+4.5 −105+1682.68 35.7%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM+4.5 −110+1652.65 36.1%47.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars+4.5 −109+1642.64 36.3%47.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers+4.5 −109+1652.65 35.6%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline+4 −105+1702.70 35.9%47Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada+4 −110+1602.60 37.2%47.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig+4 −101+1702.70 35.9%47Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie+4.5 −110+1712.71 35.1%47.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS+4 −105+1672.67 36.2%47.5Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.