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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 10:00 PM ET · Final James Madison 26, San Diego State 13

James Madison at San Diego State

San Diego State −1.5 at our first look, −2.5 at kickoff. Sun Belt vs. Pac-12.

Conditions · Snapdragon Stadium: At kickoff: 71°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: James Madison 0.0 · San Diego State 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward San Diego State.

Landed: James Madison 26, San Diego State 13. James Madison covered the closing line (San Diego State −2.5). The move toward San Diego State was wrong. 39 points, under the closing total of 46.5.

James Madison Dukes 0.0

No news that moves the number.

San Diego State Aztecs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the San Diego State lineSan Diego State Aztecs spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against San Diego State.
−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−1Closing line−2.5
−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−1Closing line−2.5

Final: James Madison 26, San Diego State 13. San Diego State missed the closing number by 15.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−1.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 7:55 PM ET-1
Closing line−2.5
What moved the San Diego State moneylineSan Diego State Aztecs moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward San Diego State.
−104−108−113−117−122−127Opening line−107Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−117Price-only move−124Closing line−124
−104−108−113−117−122−127Opening line−107Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−117Price-only move−124Closing line−124
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.7% (−107)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 7:55 PM ET54.0% (−117)
Price-only move55.3% (−124)
Closing line55.3% (−124)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.

46.5 no movement since tracking began Sun 1:55 PM ET.

Every Book · San Diego State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −110−1371.73 55.3%46.5Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings−2.5 −112−1351.74 55.1%46.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel−2.5 −108−1371.73 55.3%46.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM−2.5 −110−1401.71 55.6%46.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars−2.5 −108−1321.76 54.8%46.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers−2.5 −113−1371.73 55.1%45.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline−1.5 −120−1351.74 55.3%47Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada−3 −105−1401.71 56.2%46.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig−1.5 −116−1351.74 55.3%47Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie−2 −110−1381.72 55.1%46.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS−2 −110−1391.72 56.0%47Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.