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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 3:30 PM ET · Final Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21

Kentucky at Texas A&M

Texas A&M −14.5 at our first look, −16.5 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Kyle Field: At kickoff: 94°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Kentucky 0.0 · Texas A&M 0.0. Market: moved 2 toward Texas A&M.

Landed: Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21. Kentucky covered the closing line (Texas A&M −16.5). The move toward Texas A&M was wrong. 52 points, over the closing total of 49.5.

Kentucky Wildcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Texas A&M Aggies 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Texas A&M lineTexas A&M Aggies spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Texas A&M.
−17−16−15−14Opening line−14.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line−16.5
−17−16−15−14Opening line−14.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line−16.5

Final: Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21. Texas A&M missed the closing number by 26.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−14.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 9:55 AM ET-2.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 18, 11:55 AM ET+0.5
Closing line−16.5
What moved the Texas A&M moneylineTexas A&M Aggies moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Texas A&M.
−567−614Opening line−580Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−580Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−580Price-only move−609Closing line−609
−567−614Opening line−580Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−580Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−580Price-only move−609Closing line−609
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line85.3% (−580)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 9:55 AM ET85.3% (−580)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 18, 11:55 AM ET85.3% (−580)
Price-only move85.9% (−609)
Closing line85.9% (−609)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
484950Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+1Closing line49.5
484950Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+1Closing line49.5

Final: 52 points, over the closing total of 49.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 5:55 PM ET+1
Closing line49.5

Every Book · Texas A&M side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−16.5 −112−8501.12 85.9%49.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−16.5 −118−8501.12 85.8%49.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−16.5 −110−9001.11 86.1%50.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−16.5 −112−8001.12 86.2%49.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−16.5 −117−8501.12 85.3%49.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−17 −110−8501.12 85.8%49.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−17 −109−9101.11 85.4%50.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−16.5 −115−8501.12 86.0%50Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−16.5 −120−9001.11 85.9%49.5Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−16.5 −111−8501.12 86.0%50Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−17 −110−10091.10 86.6%50Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−16.5 −115−8501.12 85.9%49.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.