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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 4:00 PM ET · Final Louisiana Tech 19, Baylor 36

Louisiana Tech at Baylor

Baylor −18.5 at our first look, −20 at kickoff. Sun Belt vs. Big 12.

Conditions · McLane Stadium: At kickoff: 97°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Louisiana Tech 0.0 · Baylor 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Baylor.

Landed: Louisiana Tech 19, Baylor 36. Louisiana Tech covered the closing line (Baylor −20). The move toward Baylor was wrong. 55 points, over the closing total of 50.5.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Baylor Bears 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Baylor lineBaylor Bears spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Baylor.
−20−19−18−17Opening line−18.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−2.5Closing line−20
−20−19−18−17Opening line−18.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−2.5Closing line−20

Final: Louisiana Tech 19, Baylor 36. Baylor missed the closing number by 3.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−18.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 1:55 PM ET-2.5
Closing line−20
What moved the Baylor moneylineBaylor Bears moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Baylor.
−809−900Opening line−852Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−852Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−852Closing line−835
−809−900Opening line−852Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−852Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−852Closing line−835
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line89.5% (−852)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET89.5% (−852)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 1:55 PM ET89.5% (−852)
Closing line89.3% (−835)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
50515253545556Opening line55.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM−3Closing line50.5
50525456Opening line55.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM−3Closing line50.5

Final: 55 points, over the closing total of 50.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line55.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 3:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 15, 9:55 PM ET-3
Closing line50.5

Every Book · Baylor side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−20 −109−13001.08 89.3%50.5Sat 3:55 PM
DraftKings−20.5 −108−13501.07 89.3%50.5Sat 3:55 PM
FanDuel−20.5 −106−17001.06 90.3%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetMGM−20 −108−12001.08 89.8%50.5Sat 3:55 PM
Caesars−19.5 −109−14501.07 89.4%50.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetRivers−20 −109−12501.08 88.1%50.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetOnline−20 −113−13001.08 89.3%50.5Sat 3:55 PM
Bovada−20 −110−12001.08 88.1%50Sat 3:55 PM
LowVig−20 −109−13001.08 89.3%50.5Sat 3:55 PM
MyBookie−20 −110−14081.07 88.8%50.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetUS−20 −110−13001.08 89.1%50.5Sat 3:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.