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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 7:30 PM ET · Final LSU 24, Ole Miss 32

10LSU at 9Ole Miss

Ole Miss −2.5 at our first look, +3 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium: At kickoff: 95°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: LSU 0.0 · Ole Miss 0.0. Market: moved 5.5 toward LSU.

Landed: LSU 24, Ole Miss 32. Ole Miss covered the closing line (Ole Miss +3). The move toward LSU was wrong. 56 points, under the closing total of 58.5.

LSU Tigers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Ole Miss Rebels 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Ole Miss lineOle Miss Rebels spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Ole Miss.
−3−2−1PK+1+2+3Opening line−2.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+0.5Closing line+3
−2PK+2Opening line−2.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+0.5Closing line+3

Final: LSU 24, Ole Miss 32. Ole Miss beat the closing number by 11.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−2.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 5, 1:55 PM ET+5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 5:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line+3
What moved the Ole Miss moneylineOle Miss Rebels moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Ole Miss.
+122−100−122Opening line−117Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+128Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+136Closing line+135
+122−100−122Opening line−117Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+128Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+136Closing line+135
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.0% (−117)
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 5, 1:55 PM ET43.9% (+128)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 5:55 PM ET42.4% (+136)
Closing line42.6% (+135)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
575859Opening line57.5Market move, no reported newsWed 7:55 PM+1Closing line58.5
575859Opening line57.5Market move, no reported newsWed 7:55 PM+1Closing line58.5

Final: 56 points, under the closing total of 58.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line57.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 9, 7:55 PM ET+1
Closing line58.5

Every Book · Ole Miss side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3 −111+1252.25 42.6%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings+3 −112+1242.24 42.8%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel+2.5 −104+1222.22 43.3%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM+3 −112+1202.20 43.4%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars+3 −112+1282.28 42.1%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics+3 −110+1252.25 42.6%59Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers+3 −114+1282.28 41.5%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline+2.5 +105+1272.27 42.5%59Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada+2.5 +105+1302.30 42.0%59Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie+3 −110+1232.23 42.7%59Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS+3 −120+1252.25 42.9%59Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.