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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Friday, September 18, 7:30 PM ET · Final Miami 33, Wake Forest 20

4Miami at Wake Forest

Wake Forest +19.5 at our first look, +20.5 at kickoff. ACC game.

Conditions · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium: At kickoff: 74°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Miami 0.0 · Wake Forest 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Miami.

Landed: Miami 33, Wake Forest 20. Wake Forest covered the closing line (Wake Forest +20.5). The move toward Miami was wrong. 53 points, under the closing total of 55.5.

Miami Hurricanes 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Wake Forest lineWake Forest Demon Deacons spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Wake Forest.
+19+20+21Opening line+19.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 3:55 PM+1Closing line+20.5
+19+20+21Opening line+19.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 3:55 PM+1Closing line+20.5

Final: Miami 33, Wake Forest 20. Wake Forest beat the closing number by 7.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+19.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 12, 3:55 PM ET+1
Closing line+20.5
What moved the Wake Forest moneylineWake Forest Demon Deacons moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Wake Forest.
+1011+900+809+733Opening line+785Reaction to last week's gameSat 3:55 PM+785Price-only move+953Closing line+953
+1011+900+809+733Opening line+785Reaction to last week's gameSat 3:55 PM+785Price-only move+953Closing line+953
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line11.3% (+785)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 12, 3:55 PM ET11.3% (+785)
Price-only move9.5% (+953)
Closing line9.5% (+953)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
50515253545556Opening line50.5Market move, no reported newsThu 11:55 AM+3Reaction to last week's gameSat 3:55 PM+2Closing line55.5
50525456Opening line50.5Market move, no reported newsThu 11:55 AM+3Reaction to last week's gameSat 3:55 PM+2Closing line55.5

Final: 53 points, under the closing total of 55.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line50.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 10, 11:55 AM ET+3
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 12, 3:55 PM ET+2
Closing line55.5

Every Book · Wake Forest side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+20.5 −107+90010.00 9.5%55.5Fri 5:55 PM
DraftKings+20.5 −112+90010.00 9.6%55.5Fri 5:55 PM
FanDuel+20.5 −106+8109.10 10.5%55.5Fri 5:55 PM
BetMGM+20.5 −118+95010.50 9.3%55.5Fri 5:55 PM
Caesars+20.5 −108+95010.50 9.1%55.5Fri 5:55 PM
Fanatics+20.5 −110+90010.00 9.6%55.5Fri 5:55 PM
BetRivers+20.5 −110+90010.00 9.5%56.5Fri 5:55 PM
BetOnline+20 −105+94510.45 9.2%56Fri 5:55 PM
Bovada+20 −105+90010.00 9.5%55.5Fri 5:55 PM
LowVig+20 −104+94510.45 9.2%56Fri 5:55 PM
MyBookie+21 −110+7998.99 10.6%56.5Thu 11:55 AM
BetUS+20 −105+90010.00 9.6%55.5Fri 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.