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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 7:30 PM ET · Final Michigan State 10, Notre Dame 27

Michigan State at 3Notre Dame

Notre Dame −29.5 at our first look, −29 at kickoff. Big Ten vs. FBS Independents.

Conditions · Notre Dame Stadium: At kickoff: 68°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Michigan State 0.0 · Notre Dame 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward Michigan State.

Landed: Michigan State 10, Notre Dame 27. Michigan State covered the closing line (Notre Dame −29). The move toward Michigan State was right. 37 points, under the closing total of 52.

Michigan State Spartans 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Notre Dame lineNotre Dame Fighting Irish spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Notre Dame.
−30−29Opening line−29.5Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM+0.5Closing line−29
−30−29Opening line−29.5Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM+0.5Closing line−29

Final: Michigan State 10, Notre Dame 27. Notre Dame missed the closing number by 12.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−29.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 11:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−29
What moved the Notre Dame moneylineNotre Dame Fighting Irish moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Notre Dame.
−1900−2400Opening line−2464Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−2464Price-only move−1861Closing line−1861
−1900−2400Opening line−2464Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−2464Price-only move−1861Closing line−1861
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line96.1% (−2464)
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 11:55 PM ET96.1% (−2464)
Price-only move94.9% (−1861)
Closing line94.9% (−1861)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5253Opening line52.5Market move, no reported newsTue 11:55 AM−0.5Closing line52
5253Opening line52.5Market move, no reported newsTue 11:55 AM−0.5Closing line52

Final: 37 points, under the closing total of 52.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 15, 11:55 AM ET-0.5
Closing line52

Every Book · Notre Dame side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−29 −110−70001.01 94.9%52Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−29.5 −105−50001.02 94.9%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−29.5 −106−70001.01 95.4%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−29 −108−50001.02 95.8%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−28.5 −113−100001.01 94.8%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−29 −110−50001.02 95.4%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers−29.5 −110—— —51.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−29 −110—— —52Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−29 −110−100001.01 94.4%52Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−29 −106—— —52Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−29 −110−76921.01 93.9%52Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−28.5 −110—— —52Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.