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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 12:45 PM ET · Final NC State 31, Vanderbilt 35

NC State at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt −5.5 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. ACC vs. SEC.

Conditions · FirstBank Stadium: At kickoff: 94°F, wind 7 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: NC State 0.0 · Vanderbilt 0.0. Market: moved 2.5 toward NC State.

Landed: NC State 31, Vanderbilt 35. Vanderbilt covered the closing line (Vanderbilt −3). The move toward NC State was right. 66 points, over the closing total of 50.5.

NC State Wolfpack 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Vanderbilt Commodores 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Vanderbilt lineVanderbilt Commodores spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Vanderbilt.
−6−5−4−3Opening line−5.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3
−6−5−4−3Opening line−5.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3

Final: NC State 31, Vanderbilt 35. Vanderbilt beat the closing number by 1.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−5.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET+2
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 3:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−3
What moved the Vanderbilt moneylineVanderbilt Commodores moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Vanderbilt.
−108−117−127−138−150−163−178Opening line−169Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−132Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM−108Less than the spread implies−147Closing line−147
−108−117−127−138−150−163−178Opening line−169Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−132Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM−108Less than the spread implies−147Closing line−147
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line62.8% (−169)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET56.9% (−132)
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 3:55 PM ET51.9% (−108)
Less than the spread implies59.5% (−147)
Closing line59.5% (−147)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
50515253Opening line52.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−2Closing line50.5
50515253Opening line52.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−2Closing line50.5

Final: 66 points, over the closing total of 50.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 1:55 PM ET-2
Closing line50.5

Every Book · Vanderbilt side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −115−1621.62 59.5%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−3 −118−1621.62 59.3%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−3.5 −105−1641.61 59.4%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−3.5 −105−1651.61 59.7%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−3 −118−1641.61 59.7%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−3 −115−1621.62 58.5%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−3 −115−1601.62 59.6%50Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−3.5 −105−1601.62 59.1%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−3 −111−1601.62 59.6%50Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−3 −115−1751.57 60.6%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−3 −115−1601.62 59.4%51Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.