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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 7:00 PM ET · Final Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 27

Nevada at Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee +6.5 at our first look, +3.5 at kickoff. Mountain West vs. Conference USA.

Conditions · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium: At kickoff: 95°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Nevada 0.0 · Middle Tennessee 0.0. Market: moved 3 toward Middle Tennessee.

Landed: Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 27. Middle Tennessee covered the closing line (Middle Tennessee +3.5). The move toward Middle Tennessee was right. 47 points, under the closing total of 50.5.

Nevada Wolf Pack 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Middle Tennessee lineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Middle Tennessee.
+3+4+5+6+7Opening line+6.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−3Closing line+3.5
+3+4+5+6+7Opening line+6.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−3Closing line+3.5

Final: Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 27. Middle Tennessee beat the closing number by 10.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+6.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 3:55 PM ET-3
Closing line+3.5
What moved the Middle Tennessee moneylineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Middle Tennessee.
+194+178+163+150+138+127+117Opening line+192Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+123Less than the spread implies+158Closing line+158
+194+178+163+150+138+127+117Opening line+192Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+123Less than the spread implies+158Closing line+158
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line34.3% (+192)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 3:55 PM ET44.8% (+123)
Less than the spread implies38.8% (+158)
Closing line38.8% (+158)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
495051Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+1Closing line50.5
495051Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+1Closing line50.5

Final: 47 points, under the closing total of 50.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 3:55 PM ET+1
Closing line50.5

Every Book · Middle Tennessee side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3.5 −110+1492.49 38.8%50.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings+3.5 −105+1502.50 38.4%50.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel+3.5 −110+1402.40 39.8%49.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM+3.5 −108+1502.50 38.1%50.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars+3.5 −110+1472.47 38.8%50.5Fri 7:55 PM
BetRivers+4.5 −112+1452.45 38.8%50.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline+3.5 −105+1492.49 38.9%50.5Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada+4 −110+1552.55 37.9%50Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig+3.5 −101+1492.49 38.9%50.5Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie+4 −110+1582.58 36.9%50Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS+3.5 −110+1462.46 39.2%50.5Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.