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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 7:30 PM ET · Final New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14

New Mexico at Oklahoma

Oklahoma −20.5 at our first look, −21.5 at kickoff. Mountain West vs. SEC.

Conditions · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK): At kickoff: 96°F, wind 13 mph (gusts 22), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: New Mexico 0.0 · Oklahoma 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Oklahoma.

Landed: New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14. New Mexico covered the closing line (Oklahoma −21.5). The move toward Oklahoma was wrong. 20 points, under the closing total of 45.5.

New Mexico Lobos 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Oklahoma Sooners 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Oklahoma lineOklahoma Sooners spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Oklahoma.
−23−22−21−20Opening line−20.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−2Market move, no reported newsWed 9:55 PM+1Closing line−21.5
−23−22−21−20Opening line−20.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−2Market move, no reported newsWed 9:55 PM+1Closing line−21.5

Final: New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14. Oklahoma missed the closing number by 13.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−20.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 11:55 AM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 9:55 PM ET+1
Closing line−21.5
What moved the Oklahoma moneylineOklahoma Sooners moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Oklahoma.
−1011−1150Opening line−1105Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−1105Market move, no reported newsWed 9:55 PM−1105Closing line−1120
−1011−1150Opening line−1105Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−1105Market move, no reported newsWed 9:55 PM−1105Closing line−1120
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line91.7% (−1105)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 11:55 AM ET91.7% (−1105)
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 9:55 PM ET91.7% (−1105)
Closing line91.8% (−1120)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
454647484950Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−1.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−2.5Closing line45.5
454647484950Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−1.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−2.5Closing line45.5

Final: 20 points, under the closing total of 45.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET-1.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 11:55 AM ET-2.5
Closing line45.5

Every Book · Oklahoma side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−21.5 −105−21001.05 91.8%45.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−21.5 −102−21001.05 92.0%45.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−21.5 −105−30001.03 92.6%45.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−21 −115−20001.05 92.3%45.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−21.5 −105−25001.04 92.0%45.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−21.5 −105−18001.06 91.6%45.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers−21 −117−50001.02 93.2%45Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−21.5 −105−21001.05 91.8%44.5Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−21 −115−20001.05 90.9%45.5Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−21.5 −101−21001.05 91.8%44.5Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−21 −110−20001.05 90.7%45.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−21 −110−21001.05 91.8%46Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.