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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 12:00 PM ET · Final North Carolina 20, Clemson 28

North Carolina at Clemson

Clemson −9.5 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. ACC game.

Conditions · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC): At kickoff: 83°F, wind 3 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: North Carolina 0.0 · Clemson 0.0. Market: moved 6.5 toward North Carolina.

Landed: North Carolina 20, Clemson 28. Clemson covered the closing line (Clemson −3). The move toward North Carolina was wrong. 48 points, over the closing total of 44.5.

North Carolina Tar Heels 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Clemson Tigers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Clemson lineClemson Tigers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Clemson.
−10−8−6−4Opening line−9.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+1Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+5.5Closing line−3
−10−8−6−4Opening line−9.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+1Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+5.5Closing line−3

Final: North Carolina 20, Clemson 28. Clemson beat the closing number by 5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−9.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 11, 11:55 AM ET+1
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 9:55 AM ET+5.5
Closing line−3
What moved the Clemson moneylineClemson Tigers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Clemson.
−100−122−150−186−233−300−400Opening line−339Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−289Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−112Less than the spread implies−135Closing line−135
−100−122−150−186−233−300−400Opening line−339Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−289Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−112Less than the spread implies−135Closing line−135
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line77.2% (−339)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 11, 11:55 AM ET74.3% (−289)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 9:55 AM ET52.8% (−112)
Less than the spread implies57.5% (−135)
Closing line57.5% (−135)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.

44.5 no movement since tracking began Wed 7:55 PM ET.

Every Book · Clemson side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −112−1481.68 57.5%44.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−3 −102−1481.68 57.2%44.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−2.5 −122−1561.64 58.4%44.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−3 −108−1451.69 57.1%44.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−3 −107−1521.66 57.9%44.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−3 −115−1621.62 58.7%44Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−2.5 −120−1471.68 57.5%44Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−3 +100−1401.71 56.2%44.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−2.5 −116−1471.68 57.5%44Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−3 +100−1601.62 58.6%44.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−2.5 −120−1401.71 56.2%44Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.