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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 10:30 PM ET · Final North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10

North Dakota State at Sacramento State

Sacramento State +26.5 at our first look, +25 at kickoff. Mountain West vs. Mid-American.

Conditions · Hornet Stadium: At kickoff: 83°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: North Dakota State 0.0 · Sacramento State 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Sacramento State.

Landed: North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10. Sacramento State covered the closing line (Sacramento State +25). The move toward Sacramento State was right. 41 points, under the closing total of 50.5.

North Dakota State Bison 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Sacramento State Hornets 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Sacramento State lineSacramento State Hornets spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Sacramento State.
+25+26+27+28Opening line+26.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+1.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 PM−3Closing line+25
+25+26+27+28Opening line+26.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+1.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 PM−3Closing line+25

Final: North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10. Sacramento State beat the closing number by 4.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+26.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 3:55 PM ET+1.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 11:55 PM ET-3
Closing line+25
What moved the Sacramento State moneylineSacramento State Hornets moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Sacramento State.
+2400+1900+1567Opening line+2074Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+2074Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 PM+2074Price-only move+1567Closing line+1567
+2400+1900+1567Opening line+2074Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+2074Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 PM+2074Price-only move+1567Closing line+1567
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line4.6% (+2074)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 3:55 PM ET4.6% (+2074)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 11:55 PM ET4.6% (+2074)
Price-only move6.0% (+1567)
Closing line6.0% (+1567)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5051525354Opening line53.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−2Closing line50.5
5051525354Opening line53.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−2Closing line50.5

Final: 41 points, under the closing total of 50.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line53.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 7:55 PM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 3:55 PM ET-2
Closing line50.5

Every Book · Sacramento State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+25 −108+148515.85 6.0%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings+26.5 −105+180019.00 5.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel+25.5 −108+160017.00 5.7%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM+25.5 −118+175018.50 5.3%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars+24.5 +102+150016.00 6.0%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers+25 −109—— —51Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline+24.5 −110+147015.70 6.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada+25.5 −115+120013.00 7.3%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig+24.5 −106+147015.70 6.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie+25 −110+135514.55 6.5%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS+24 −105—— —50Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.