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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 12:00 PM ET · Final North Texas 35, Texas State 49

North Texas at Texas State

Texas State −3.5 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. American Athletic vs. Pac-12.

Conditions · Bobcat Stadium (TX): At kickoff: 85°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: North Texas 0.0 · Texas State 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward North Texas.

Landed: North Texas 35, Texas State 49. Texas State covered the closing line (Texas State −3). The move toward North Texas was wrong. 84 points, over the closing total of 62.5.

North Texas Mean Green 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Texas State Bobcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Texas State lineTexas State Bobcats spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Texas State.
−4−3Opening line−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3
−4−3Opening line−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3

Final: North Texas 35, Texas State 49. Texas State beat the closing number by 11.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−3
What moved the Texas State moneylineTexas State Bobcats moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Texas State.
−117−127−138−150Opening line−146Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−119Less than the spread implies−138Closing line−138
−117−127−138−150Opening line−146Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−119Less than the spread implies−138Closing line−138
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line59.4% (−146)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET54.4% (−119)
Less than the spread implies57.9% (−138)
Closing line57.9% (−138)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
626364Opening line62.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM−1Closing line62.5
626364Opening line62.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM−1Closing line62.5

Final: 84 points, over the closing total of 62.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line62.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 5:55 PM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 3:55 PM ET-1
Closing line62.5

Every Book · Texas State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −115−1501.67 57.9%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−3 −115−1551.65 58.3%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−2.5 −120−1441.69 56.5%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−3 −105−1451.69 56.6%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−3 −112−1541.65 58.3%62.5Sun 1:55 PM
BetRivers−3 −105−1481.68 56.5%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−3 −119−1501.67 58.0%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−3 −115−1601.62 59.1%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−3 −118−1621.62 59.9%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−3 −110−1521.66 57.5%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−3 −120−1501.67 57.9%62.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.