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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 4:00 PM ET · Final Stanford 7, Duke 35

Stanford at Duke

Duke −9.5 at our first look, −10 at kickoff. ACC game.

Conditions · Wallace Wade Stadium: At kickoff: 87°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Stanford 0.0 · Duke 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward Duke.

Landed: Stanford 7, Duke 35. Duke covered the closing line (Duke −10). The move toward Duke was right. 42 points, under the closing total of 51.

Stanford Cardinal 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Duke Blue Devils 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Duke lineDuke Blue Devils spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Duke.
−10−9Opening line−9.5Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−0.5Closing line−10
−10−9Opening line−9.5Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−0.5Closing line−10

Final: Stanford 7, Duke 35. Duke beat the closing number by 18.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−9.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 11:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line−10
What moved the Duke moneylineDuke Blue Devils moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Duke.
−317−335−355Opening line−327Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−346Less than the spread implies−322Closing line−322
−317−335−355Opening line−327Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 PM−346Less than the spread implies−322Closing line−322
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line76.6% (−327)
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 11:55 PM ET77.6% (−346)
Less than the spread implies76.3% (−322)
Closing line76.3% (−322)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
505152Opening line50.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line51
505152Opening line50.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line51

Final: 42 points, under the closing total of 51.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line50.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 5:55 PM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line51

Every Book · Duke side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−10 −110−3851.26 76.3%51Sat 3:55 PM
DraftKings−9.5 −112−3751.27 75.7%51.5Sat 3:55 PM
FanDuel−9.5 −124−4101.24 76.9%51.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetMGM−10 −108−3751.27 76.4%51.5Sat 3:55 PM
Caesars−9.5 −114−3801.26 75.8%51Sat 3:55 PM
BetRivers−10 −110−4201.24 76.8%51Sat 3:55 PM
BetOnline−10 −110−3851.26 76.3%51Sat 3:55 PM
Bovada−10 −105−3901.26 75.9%51.5Sat 3:55 PM
LowVig−10 −106−3851.26 76.3%51Sat 3:55 PM
MyBookie−10 −110−4001.25 76.2%51Sat 3:55 PM
BetUS−10 −110−3501.29 74.7%51Sat 3:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.