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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 3:00 PM ET · Final Temple 48, Toledo 49

Temple at Toledo

Toledo −3.5 at our first look, −5 at kickoff. American Athletic vs. Mid-American.

Conditions · Glass Bowl: At kickoff: 66°F, wind 7 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Temple 0.0 · Toledo 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Toledo.

Landed: Temple 48, Toledo 49. Temple covered the closing line (Toledo −5). The move toward Toledo was wrong. 97 points, over the closing total of 48.5.

Temple Owls 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Toledo Rockets 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Toledo lineToledo Rockets spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Toledo.
−6−5−4−3Opening line−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM+0.5Closing line−5
−6−5−4−3Opening line−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM+0.5Closing line−5

Final: Temple 48, Toledo 49. Toledo missed the closing number by 4.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 15, 9:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−5
What moved the Toledo moneylineToledo Rockets moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Toledo.
−150−163−178−194Opening line−146Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−188Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM−173Price-only move−182Closing line−182
−150−163−178−194Opening line−146Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−188Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 PM−173Price-only move−182Closing line−182
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line59.4% (−146)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 1:55 PM ET65.3% (−188)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 15, 9:55 PM ET63.4% (−173)
Price-only move64.6% (−182)
Closing line64.6% (−182)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4849505152Opening line51.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM−2.5Closing line48.5
4849505152Opening line51.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM−2.5Closing line48.5

Final: 97 points, over the closing total of 48.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 11:55 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 15, 1:55 PM ET-2.5
Closing line48.5

Every Book · Toledo side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−5 −110−2001.50 64.6%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−5.5 −105−2051.49 64.5%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−4.5 −110−1941.52 63.2%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−5 −110−2101.48 64.7%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars— —−1641.61 59.8%52.5Sun 1:55 PM
BetRivers−4.5 −114−2001.50 63.4%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−5 −111−2001.50 64.6%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−5 −110−2101.48 65.1%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−5 −107−2001.50 64.6%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−5 −110−2181.46 65.3%49Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−5 −110−1951.51 63.8%48.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.