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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 7:30 PM ET · Final West Virginia 38, Virginia 27

West Virginia at Virginia

Virginia +8.5 at our first look, +10.5 at kickoff. Big 12 vs. ACC at a neutral site.

Conditions · Bank of America Stadium: At kickoff: 83°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: West Virginia 0.0 · Virginia 0.0. Market: moved 2 toward West Virginia.

Landed: West Virginia 38, Virginia 27. West Virginia covered the closing line (Virginia +10.5). The move toward West Virginia was right. 65 points, over the closing total of 53.5.

West Virginia Mountaineers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Virginia Cavaliers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Virginia lineVirginia Cavaliers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Virginia.
−10−8−6−4−2PK+2+4+6+8+10+12Opening line+8.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−16.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM+18.5Closing line+10.5
−10−8−6−4−2PK+2+4+6+8+10+12Opening line+8.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−16.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM+18.5Closing line+10.5

Final: West Virginia 38, Virginia 27. Virginia missed the closing number by 0.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+8.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 11, 11:55 AM ET-16.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 12, 5:55 PM ET+18.5
Closing line+10.5
What moved the Virginia moneylineVirginia Cavaliers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Virginia.
+400+300+233+186+150+122−100−122−150−186−233−300−400−567−900Opening line+255Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−525Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM+320Price-only move+344Closing line+344
+400+300+233+186+150+122−100−122−150−186−233−300−400−567−900Opening line+255Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−525Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM+320Price-only move+344Closing line+344
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line28.2% (+255)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 11, 11:55 AM ET84.0% (−525)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 12, 5:55 PM ET23.8% (+320)
Price-only move22.5% (+344)
Closing line22.5% (+344)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5051525354Opening line50.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+2Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM+1Closing line53.5
5051525354Opening line50.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+2Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM+1Closing line53.5

Final: 65 points, over the closing total of 53.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line50.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 11, 11:55 AM ET+2
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 12, 5:55 PM ET+1
Closing line53.5

Every Book · Virginia side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+10.5 −110+3274.27 22.5%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings+10.5 −108+3204.20 22.8%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel+10.5 −114+3404.40 21.9%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM+11 −118+3334.33 22.2%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars+10.5 −113+3204.20 22.8%53Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics+10.5 −110+3254.25 22.5%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers+10.5 −112+3104.10 23.2%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline+10.5 −105+3274.27 22.5%53Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada+11 −115+3254.25 22.4%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig+10.5 −101+3274.27 22.5%53Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie+11 −110+3404.40 21.7%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS+11 −110+3304.30 22.4%53Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.