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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 10:30 PM ET · Final Air Force 36, Nevada 33

Air Force at Nevada

Nevada +4.5 at our first look, +5.5 at kickoff. Mountain West game.

Conditions · Mackay Stadium: At kickoff: 67°F, wind 9 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Air Force 0.0 · Nevada 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Air Force.

Landed: Air Force 36, Nevada 33. Nevada covered the closing line (Nevada +5.5). The move toward Air Force was wrong. 69 points, over the closing total of 50.5.

Air Force Falcons 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Nevada Wolf Pack 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Nevada lineNevada Wolf Pack spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Nevada.
+4+5+6Opening line+4.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+1.5Closing line+5.5
+4+5+6Opening line+4.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+1.5Closing line+5.5

Final: Air Force 36, Nevada 33. Nevada beat the closing number by 2.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+4.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 11:55 AM ET+1.5
Closing line+5.5
What moved the Nevada moneylineNevada Wolf Pack moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Nevada.
+203+194+186+178+170Opening line+173Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+171Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+205Less than the spread implies+199Closing line+199
+203+194+186+178+170Opening line+173Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+171Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+205Less than the spread implies+199Closing line+199
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line36.6% (+173)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET36.9% (+171)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 11:55 AM ET32.8% (+205)
Less than the spread implies33.4% (+199)
Closing line33.4% (+199)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
495051Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+1.5Closing line50.5
495051Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+1.5Closing line50.5

Final: 69 points, over the closing total of 50.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 5:55 PM ET+1.5
Closing line50.5

Every Book · Nevada side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+5.5 −108+1882.88 33.4%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings+5.5 −108+1902.90 33.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel+4.5 −104+1722.72 35.2%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM+5.5 −108+1852.85 33.6%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars+5.5 −107+1902.90 33.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics+5.5 −110+1802.80 34.2%50Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers+6 −109+2053.05 31.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline+5.5 −110+1862.86 33.7%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada+6 −110+2003.00 32.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig+5.5 −106+1862.86 33.7%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie+5.5 −110+1932.93 32.5%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS+5.5 −105+1852.85 33.8%50.5Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.