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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 7:30 PM ET · Final App State 31, NC State 41

App State at NC State

NC State −13.5 at our first look, −13 at kickoff. Sun Belt vs. ACC.

Conditions · Carter-Finley Stadium: At kickoff: 74°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: App State 0.0 · NC State 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward App State.

Landed: App State 31, NC State 41. App State covered the closing line (NC State −13). The move toward App State was right. 72 points, over the closing total of 55.5.

App State Mountaineers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

NC State Wolfpack 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the NC State lineNC State Wolfpack spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against NC State.
−14−13Opening line−13.5Reaction to last week's gameMon 1:55 AM−0.5Market move, no reported newsSat 9:55 AM+1Closing line−13
−14−13Opening line−13.5Reaction to last week's gameMon 1:55 AM−0.5Market move, no reported newsSat 9:55 AM+1Closing line−13

Final: App State 31, NC State 41. NC State missed the closing number by 3.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−13.5
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 21, 1:55 AM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 9:55 AM ET+1
Closing line−13
What moved the NC State moneylineNC State Wolfpack moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward NC State.
−426−456Opening line−443Reaction to last week's gameMon 1:55 AM−459Market move, no reported newsSat 9:55 AM−429Closing line−421
−426−456Opening line−443Reaction to last week's gameMon 1:55 AM−459Market move, no reported newsSat 9:55 AM−429Closing line−421
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line81.6% (−443)
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 21, 1:55 AM ET82.1% (−459)
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 9:55 AM ET81.1% (−429)
Closing line80.8% (−421)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
545556Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsFri 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line55.5
545556Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsFri 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line55.5

Final: 72 points, over the closing total of 55.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 PM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 1:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line55.5

Every Book · NC State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−13 −110−5351.19 80.8%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−12.5 −112−5351.19 80.8%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−13.5 −106−5501.18 80.9%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−13 −110−5251.19 80.8%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−14 −114−6251.16 82.6%54.5Mon 11:55 AM
Fanatics−14.5 −105−6001.17 82.2%55Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers−13.5 −113−5901.17 81.3%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−13 −110−5251.19 80.8%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−13 −110−5501.18 80.6%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−13 −108−5251.19 80.8%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−13 −110−5491.18 80.6%55.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−13 −110−5251.19 80.9%55.5Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.