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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 12:00 PM ET · Final Ball State 13, Kent State 26

Ball State at Kent State

Kent State −3.5 at our first look, −2.5 at kickoff. Mid-American game.

Conditions · Dix Stadium: At kickoff: 67°F, wind 10 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Ball State 0.0 · Kent State 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Ball State.

Landed: Ball State 13, Kent State 26. Kent State covered the closing line (Kent State −2.5). The move toward Ball State was wrong. 39 points, under the closing total of 51.5.

Ball State Cardinals 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Kent State Golden Flashes 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Kent State lineKent State Golden Flashes spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Kent State.
−4−3−2Opening line−3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM+1Closing line−2.5
−4−3−2Opening line−3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM+1Closing line−2.5

Final: Ball State 13, Kent State 26. Kent State beat the closing number by 10.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 9:55 AM ET+1
Closing line−2.5
What moved the Kent State moneylineKent State Golden Flashes moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Kent State.
−117−127−138−150Opening line−154Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM−118Less than the spread implies−127Closing line−127
−117−127−138−150Opening line−154Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM−118Less than the spread implies−127Closing line−127
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line60.7% (−154)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 9:55 AM ET54.2% (−118)
Less than the spread implies55.9% (−127)
Closing line55.9% (−127)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
49505152Opening line50.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+2Closing line51.5
49505152Opening line50.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+2Closing line51.5

Final: 39 points, under the closing total of 51.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line50.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 5:55 PM ET+2
Closing line51.5

Every Book · Kent State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −113−1401.71 55.9%51.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−2.5 −115−1421.70 56.3%51.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−2.5 −118−1421.70 55.9%51.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−2.5 −115−1401.71 55.6%51.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−3 −115−1591.63 59.0%49.5Mon 11:55 AM
Fanatics−3 −115−1701.59 60.2%50.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers−3 −106−1481.68 56.5%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−2.5 −110−1351.74 55.3%51.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−3 −105−1351.74 55.3%51.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−2.5 −113−1351.74 55.3%51.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−2.5 −110−1471.68 56.7%51.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−2.5 −115−1401.71 56.2%51.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.