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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Friday, September 25, 10:30 PM ET · Final Clemson 24, California 10

Clemson at California

California +1.5 at our first look, +2.5 at kickoff. ACC game.

Conditions · California Memorial Stadium: At kickoff: 64°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Clemson 0.0 · California 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Clemson.

Landed: Clemson 24, California 10. Clemson covered the closing line (California +2.5). The move toward Clemson was right. 34 points, under the closing total of 51.5.

Clemson Tigers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

California Golden Bears 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the California lineCalifornia Golden Bears spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against California.
−1PK+1+2+3Opening line+1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−2.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+3.5Closing line+2.5
−1PK+1+2+3Opening line+1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−2.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+3.5Closing line+2.5

Final: Clemson 24, California 10. California missed the closing number by 11.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+1.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET-2.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET+3.5
Closing line+2.5
What moved the California moneylineCalifornia Golden Bears moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward California.
+127+117+108−100−108Opening line+109Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−111Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+119Price-only move+125Closing line+125
+127+117+108−100−108Opening line+109Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−111Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+119Price-only move+125Closing line+125
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line47.9% (+109)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET52.5% (−111)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET45.6% (+119)
Price-only move44.4% (+125)
Closing line44.4% (+125)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4849505152Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+1Closing line51.5
4849505152Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+1Closing line51.5

Final: 34 points, under the closing total of 51.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 3:55 PM ET+2
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 11:55 AM ET+1
Closing line51.5

Every Book · California side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+2.5 −109+1162.16 44.4%51.5Fri 9:55 PM
DraftKings+2.5 −108+1202.20 43.7%52.5Fri 9:55 PM
FanDuel+2.5 −112+1052.05 46.7%51.5Fri 9:55 PM
BetMGM+2.5 −108+1152.15 44.4%51.5Fri 9:55 PM
Caesars+2.5 −109+1162.16 44.5%51.5Fri 9:55 PM
Fanatics+1 −110−1051.95 48.9%50.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers+2 −109+1122.12 44.8%51.5Fri 9:55 PM
BetOnline+2.5 −110+1222.22 43.4%52Fri 9:55 PM
Bovada+2.5 −105+1202.20 43.8%52Fri 9:55 PM
LowVig+2.5 −106+1222.22 43.4%52Fri 9:55 PM
MyBookie+2.5 −110+1132.13 44.7%51.5Fri 9:55 PM
BetUS+2.5 −110+1152.15 44.7%52Fri 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.