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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 12:00 PM ET · Final Colorado 13, Baylor 23

Colorado at Baylor

Baylor −6.5 at our first look, −8.5 at kickoff. Big 12 game.

Conditions · McLane Stadium: At kickoff: 86°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Colorado 0.0 · Baylor 0.0. Market: moved 2 toward Baylor.

Landed: Colorado 13, Baylor 23. Baylor covered the closing line (Baylor −8.5). The move toward Baylor was right. 36 points, under the closing total of 54.5.

Colorado Buffaloes 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Baylor Bears 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Baylor lineBaylor Bears spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Baylor.
−10−9−8−7−6Opening line−6.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−3.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+1.5Closing line−8.5
−10−9−8−7−6Opening line−6.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−3.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+1.5Closing line−8.5

Final: Colorado 13, Baylor 23. Baylor beat the closing number by 1.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−6.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET-3.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 11:55 AM ET+1.5
Closing line−8.5
What moved the Baylor moneylineBaylor Bears moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Baylor.
−213−233−257−285−317−355Opening line−218Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−365Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−294Closing line−295
−213−233−257−285−317−355Opening line−218Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−365Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−294Closing line−295
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line68.6% (−218)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET78.5% (−365)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 11:55 AM ET74.6% (−294)
Closing line74.7% (−295)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
52535455Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line54.5
52535455Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line54.5

Final: 36 points, under the closing total of 54.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET+2.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line54.5

Every Book · Baylor side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−8.5 −109−3501.29 74.7%54.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−8.5 −105−3451.29 74.4%54.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−8.5 −106−3201.31 73.0%54.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−8.5 −105−3501.29 74.7%54.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−8.5 −108−3801.26 75.5%54.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics−10 −110−3751.27 75.5%55.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers−8.5 −113−3751.27 74.8%55Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.7%54.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−8.5 −110−3601.28 74.8%54Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−8.5 −106−3501.29 74.7%54.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−8.5 −110−3601.28 74.8%54.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−8 −110−3501.29 74.7%54.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.