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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 12:00 PM ET · Final Illinois 19, Ohio State 42

Illinois at 5Ohio State

Ohio State −26.5 at our first look, −25.5 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Ohio Stadium: At kickoff: 67°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Illinois 0.0 · Ohio State 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Illinois.

Landed: Illinois 19, Ohio State 42. Illinois covered the closing line (Ohio State −25.5). The move toward Illinois was right. 61 points, over the closing total of 53.5.

Illinois Fighting Illini 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Ohio State Buckeyes 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Ohio State lineOhio State Buckeyes spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Ohio State.
−27−26−25Opening line−26.5Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 AM+1.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM−0.5Closing line−25.5
−27−26−25Opening line−26.5Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 AM+1.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM−0.5Closing line−25.5

Final: Illinois 19, Ohio State 42. Ohio State missed the closing number by 2.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−26.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 18, 7:55 AM ET+1.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 19, 5:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line−25.5
What moved the Ohio State moneylineOhio State Buckeyes moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Ohio State.
−1567−1900Opening line−1654Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 AM−1654Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM−1654Closing line−1654
−1567−1900Opening line−1654Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 AM−1654Reaction to last week's gameSat 5:55 PM−1654Closing line−1654
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line94.3% (−1654)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 18, 7:55 AM ET94.3% (−1654)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 19, 5:55 PM ET94.3% (−1654)
Closing line94.3% (−1654)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
525354Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+1Closing line53.5
525354Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+1Closing line53.5

Final: 61 points, over the closing total of 53.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 19, 9:55 PM ET+1
Closing line53.5

Every Book · Ohio State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−25.5 −110−50001.02 94.3%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−25.5 −112−40001.02 94.3%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−25.5 −110−45001.02 94.3%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−25.5 −110−50001.02 95.0%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−25.5 −108−50001.02 94.3%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics−25.5 −110−40001.02 94.9%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−26.5 −113−100001.01 94.4%54Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−25.5 −110−50001.02 94.2%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−25.5 −110−50001.02 92.7%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−25.5 −106−50001.02 94.2%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−26 −110−50491.02 93.2%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−26 −110—— —53.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.