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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 3:30 PM ET · Final Iowa 20, Michigan 19

20Iowa at Michigan

Michigan −4.5 at our first look, −5.5 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Michigan Stadium: At kickoff: 73°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Iowa 0.0 · Michigan 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Michigan.

Landed: Iowa 20, Michigan 19. Iowa covered the closing line (Michigan −5.5). The move toward Michigan was wrong. 39 points, under the closing total of 40.

Iowa Hawkeyes 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Michigan Wolverines 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Michigan lineMichigan Wolverines spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Michigan.
−7−6−5−4Opening line−4.5Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−2Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1Closing line−5.5
−7−6−5−4Opening line−4.5Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−2Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1Closing line−5.5

Final: Iowa 20, Michigan 19. Michigan missed the closing number by 6.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−4.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 17, 1:55 PM ET-2
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 19, 7:55 PM ET+1
Closing line−5.5
What moved the Michigan moneylineMichigan Wolverines moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Michigan.
−178−194−213−233Opening line−171Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−242Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM−203Less than the spread implies−187Closing line−187
−178−194−213−233Opening line−171Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−242Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM−203Less than the spread implies−187Closing line−187
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line63.1% (−171)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 17, 1:55 PM ET70.8% (−242)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 19, 7:55 PM ET67.0% (−203)
Less than the spread implies65.1% (−187)
Closing line65.1% (−187)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
3940Opening line39.5Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1Closing line40
3940Opening line39.5Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1Closing line40

Final: 39 points, under the closing total of 40.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line39.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 17, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 19, 7:55 PM ET+1
Closing line40

Every Book · Michigan side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−5.5 −108−2151.47 65.1%40Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−5.5 −105−2181.46 65.7%40.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−5.5 −108−2151.47 65.3%40.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−5 −105−2101.48 65.1%40.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−5.5 −107−2181.46 65.7%40Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−5 −110−2001.50 63.9%40Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−5.5 −112−2151.47 64.8%39.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−5.5 −108−2051.49 65.1%40Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−5 −115−2251.44 66.4%40Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−5.5 −104−2051.49 65.1%40Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−5.5 −110−2161.46 65.0%40Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−5.5 −110−2101.48 65.5%40.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.