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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 7:00 PM ET · Final Kennesaw State 14, Arkansas State 17

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

Arkansas State −4.5 at our first look, −6.5 at kickoff. Conference USA vs. Sun Belt.

Conditions · Centennial Bank Stadium: At kickoff: 80°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Kennesaw State 0.0 · Arkansas State 0.0. Market: moved 2 toward Arkansas State.

Landed: Kennesaw State 14, Arkansas State 17. Kennesaw State covered the closing line (Arkansas State −6.5). The move toward Arkansas State was wrong. 31 points, under the closing total of 53.

Kennesaw State Owls 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Arkansas State Red Wolves 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Arkansas State lineArkansas State Red Wolves spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Arkansas State.
−7−6−5−4Opening line−4.5Reaction to last week's gameMon 11:55 AM−1Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−1Closing line−6.5
−7−6−5−4Opening line−4.5Reaction to last week's gameMon 11:55 AM−1Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−1Closing line−6.5

Final: Kennesaw State 14, Arkansas State 17. Arkansas State missed the closing number by 3.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−4.5
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 21, 11:55 AM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 22, 9:55 AM ET-1
Closing line−6.5
What moved the Arkansas State moneylineArkansas State Red Wolves moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Arkansas State.
−163−178−194−213−233−257Opening line−170Reaction to last week's gameMon 11:55 AM−200Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−247Less than the spread implies−216Closing line−216
−163−178−194−213−233−257Opening line−170Reaction to last week's gameMon 11:55 AM−200Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−247Less than the spread implies−216Closing line−216
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line62.9% (−170)
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 21, 11:55 AM ET66.7% (−200)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 22, 9:55 AM ET71.2% (−247)
Less than the spread implies68.4% (−216)
Closing line68.4% (−216)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
535455Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line53
535455Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line53

Final: 31 points, under the closing total of 53.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 5:55 PM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line53

Every Book · Arkansas State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−6.5 −110−2501.40 68.4%53Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−6.5 −108−2381.42 67.5%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−6.5 −110−2401.42 67.6%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−6.5 −108−2351.43 67.8%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−5.5 −114−2091.48 65.0%53.5Mon 11:55 AM
Fanatics−6 −110−2251.44 66.4%53.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers−6.5 −114−2651.38 68.5%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−6.5 −110−2501.40 68.7%53Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−6.5 −110−2451.41 68.4%53Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−6.5 −106−2501.40 68.7%53Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−6.5 −110−2551.39 68.3%53Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−6.5 −110−2501.40 68.9%53Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.