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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 9:00 PM ET · Final Massachusetts 35, Sacramento State 6

Massachusetts at Sacramento State

Sacramento State +6.5 at our first look, +5 at kickoff. Mid-American game.

Conditions · Hornet Stadium: At kickoff: 82°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Massachusetts 0.0 · Sacramento State 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Sacramento State.

Landed: Massachusetts 35, Sacramento State 6. Massachusetts covered the closing line (Sacramento State +5). The move toward Sacramento State was wrong. 41 points, under the closing total of 49.

Massachusetts Minutemen 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Sacramento State Hornets 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Sacramento State lineSacramento State Hornets spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Sacramento State.
+5+6+7Opening line+6.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line+5
+5+6+7Opening line+6.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line+5

Final: Massachusetts 35, Sacramento State 6. Sacramento State missed the closing number by 24.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+6.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 3:55 PM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line+5
What moved the Sacramento State moneylineSacramento State Hornets moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Sacramento State.
+212+194+178+163Opening line+209Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+171Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+158Less than the spread implies+180Closing line+180
+212+194+178+163Opening line+209Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+171Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+158Less than the spread implies+180Closing line+180
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line32.4% (+209)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 3:55 PM ET36.9% (+171)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET38.8% (+158)
Less than the spread implies35.7% (+180)
Closing line35.7% (+180)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
484950Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line49
484950Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line49

Final: 41 points, under the closing total of 49.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 7:55 PM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 1:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line49

Every Book · Sacramento State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+5 −110+1702.70 35.7%49Sat 7:55 PM
DraftKings+5.5 −115+1702.70 35.5%49.5Sat 7:55 PM
FanDuel+4.5 −110+1602.60 36.8%48.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetMGM+5 −108+1702.70 35.3%49.5Sat 7:55 PM
Caesars+5.5 −107+1742.74 35.0%48.5Mon 11:55 AM
Fanatics+4.5 −110+1652.65 36.1%48.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers+5 −110+1652.65 35.8%48.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetOnline+5 −110+1702.70 35.9%49Sat 7:55 PM
Bovada+5 −110+1752.75 34.9%49Sat 7:55 PM
LowVig+5 −106+1702.70 35.9%49Sat 7:55 PM
MyBookie— ——— —49Sat 7:55 PM
BetUS+5 −110+1702.70 35.7%49Sat 7:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.