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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 11:00 PM ET · Final Minnesota 27, Washington 24

Minnesota at Washington

Washington −8.5 at our first look, −12 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Husky Stadium: At kickoff: 52°F, wind 7 mph (gusts 18), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Minnesota 0.0 · Washington 0.0. Market: moved 3.5 toward Washington.

Landed: Minnesota 27, Washington 24. Minnesota covered the closing line (Washington −12). The move toward Washington was wrong. 51 points, over the closing total of 46.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Washington Huskies 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Washington lineWashington Huskies spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Washington.
−12−11−10−9−8Opening line−8.5Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−1Closing line−12
−12−11−10−9−8Opening line−8.5Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−1Closing line−12

Final: Minnesota 27, Washington 24. Washington missed the closing number by 15.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−8.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 17, 5:55 PM ET-2.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET-1
Closing line−12
What moved the Washington moneylineWashington Huskies moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Washington.
−285−317−355−400Opening line−270Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−355Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−424Less than the spread implies−372Closing line−372
−285−317−355−400Opening line−270Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−355Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−424Less than the spread implies−372Closing line−372
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line73.0% (−270)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 17, 5:55 PM ET78.0% (−355)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET80.9% (−424)
Less than the spread implies78.8% (−372)
Closing line78.8% (−372)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
454647Opening line46.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+0.5Closing line46
454647Opening line46.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+0.5Closing line46

Final: 51 points, over the closing total of 46.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line46.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 5:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line46

Every Book · Washington side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−12 −110−4651.22 78.8%46Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings−11.5 −112−4551.22 78.7%45.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel−11.5 −110−4651.22 78.4%45.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM−12 −110−4501.22 78.6%45.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars−11.5 −109−4401.23 78.2%46Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics−10 −110−4001.25 76.6%45.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers−11 −113−5901.17 80.2%46Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline−12 −110−4651.22 79.1%46Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada−11.5 −110−4701.21 78.6%45.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig−12 −106−4651.22 79.1%46Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie−12 −110−4811.21 78.8%46Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS−12 −110−4651.22 79.3%46Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.