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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 9:00 PM ET · Final Missouri State 24, SMU 34

Missouri State at 24SMU

SMU −34.5 at our first look, −30.5 at kickoff. Conference USA vs. ACC.

Conditions · Gerald J. Ford Stadium: At kickoff: 88°F, wind 9 mph (gusts 19), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Missouri State 0.0 · SMU 0.0. Market: moved 4 toward Missouri State.

Landed: Missouri State 24, SMU 34. Missouri State covered the closing line (SMU −30.5). The move toward Missouri State was right. 58 points, under the closing total of 60.

Missouri State Bears 0.0

No news that moves the number.

SMU Mustangs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the SMU lineSMU Mustangs spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against SMU.
−35−34−33−32−31−30Opening line−34.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 PM+4Closing line−30.5
−35−34−33−32−31−30Opening line−34.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 PM+4Closing line−30.5

Final: Missouri State 24, SMU 34. SMU missed the closing number by 20.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−34.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 11:55 PM ET+4
Closing line−30.5
What moved the SMU moneylineSMU Mustangs moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward SMU.
−2400−3233−4900Opening line−4067Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 PM−4067Price-only move−2400Closing line−2400
−2400−3233−4900Opening line−4067Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 PM−4067Price-only move−2400Closing line−2400
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line97.6% (−4067)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 11:55 PM ET97.6% (−4067)
Price-only move96.0% (−2400)
Closing line96.0% (−2400)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
585960Opening line59.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−1.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+2Closing line60
585960Opening line59.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−1.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+2Closing line60

Final: 58 points, under the closing total of 60.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line59.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 5:55 PM ET-1.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET+2
Closing line60

Every Book · SMU side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−30.5 −112−100001.01 96.0%60Sat 7:55 PM
DraftKings−30.5 −112−90001.01 96.3%60.5Sat 7:55 PM
FanDuel−30.5 −110−100001.01 95.8%60.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetMGM−30.5 −110−100001.01 96.6%60.5Sat 7:55 PM
Caesars−30.5 −118−100001.01 95.6%60Sat 7:55 PM
Fanatics−30.5 −115−80001.01 96.6%60.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetRivers−31.5 −112—— —59.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetOnline−30.5 −115—— —59.5Sat 7:55 PM
Bovada−30.5 −120—— —60.5Sat 7:55 PM
LowVig−30.5 −111—— —59.5Sat 7:55 PM
MyBookie−30.5 −110−100001.01 94.3%60Sat 7:55 PM
BetUS−30.5 −110—— —60Sat 7:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.