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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Friday, September 25, 7:00 PM ET · Final Navy 20, UAB 24

Navy at UAB

UAB +11.5 at our first look, +6.5 at kickoff. American Athletic game.

Conditions · Protective Stadium: At kickoff: 78°F, wind 3 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Navy 0.0 · UAB 0.0. Market: moved 5 toward UAB.

Landed: Navy 20, UAB 24. UAB covered the closing line (UAB +6.5). The move toward UAB was right. 44 points, under the closing total of 50.5.

Navy Midshipmen 0.0

No news that moves the number.

UAB Blazers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the UAB lineUAB Blazers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against UAB.
+6+7+8+9+10+11+12Opening line+11.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−4.5Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line+6.5
+6+8+10+12Opening line+11.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−4.5Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line+6.5

Final: Navy 20, UAB 24. UAB beat the closing number by 10.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+11.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET-4.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 3:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line+6.5
What moved the UAB moneylineUAB Blazers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward UAB.
+400+300+233Opening line+390Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+218Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 PM+203Less than the spread implies+215Closing line+215
+400+300+233Opening line+390Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+218Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 PM+203Less than the spread implies+215Closing line+215
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line20.4% (+390)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET31.4% (+218)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 3:55 PM ET33.0% (+203)
Less than the spread implies31.7% (+215)
Closing line31.7% (+215)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
50515253Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−1.5Closing line50.5
50515253Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−1.5Closing line50.5

Final: 44 points, under the closing total of 50.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 5:55 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 1:55 PM ET-1.5
Closing line50.5

Every Book · UAB side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+6.5 −110+2033.03 31.7%50.5Fri 5:55 PM
DraftKings+6.5 −110+2053.05 31.5%50.5Fri 5:55 PM
FanDuel+6.5 −112+1982.98 32.1%50.5Fri 5:55 PM
BetMGM+6.5 −110+2003.00 31.8%50.5Fri 5:55 PM
Caesars+6.5 −110+2003.00 31.8%50.5Fri 5:55 PM
Fanatics+7 −110+2253.25 29.5%51.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers+6.5 −106+2153.15 30.2%51.5Fri 5:55 PM
BetOnline+6.5 −110+2033.03 31.7%50.5Fri 5:55 PM
Bovada+6.5 −110+2103.10 31.1%50.5Fri 5:55 PM
LowVig+6.5 −106+2033.03 31.7%50.5Fri 5:55 PM
MyBookie+6.5 −110+1992.99 31.9%51Fri 5:55 PM
BetUS+6.5 −115+2103.10 31.1%51Fri 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.