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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 5:00 PM ET · Final Nebraska 31, Michigan State 13

Nebraska at Michigan State

Michigan State +5.5 at our first look, +5.5 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Spartan Stadium: At kickoff: 70°F, wind 7 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Nebraska 0.0 · Michigan State 0.0. Market: line unchanged.

Landed: Nebraska 31, Michigan State 13. Nebraska covered the closing line (Michigan State +5.5). 44 points, under the closing total of 49.5.

Nebraska Cornhuskers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Michigan State Spartans 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Michigan State lineMichigan State Spartans spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Michigan State.

+5.5 no movement since tracking began Wed 7:55 PM ET.

What moved the Michigan State moneylineMichigan State Spartans moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Michigan State.
+203+194+186+178Opening line+182Price-only move+200Closing line+200
+203+194+186+178Opening line+182Price-only move+200Closing line+200
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line35.5% (+182)
Price-only move33.3% (+200)
Closing line33.3% (+200)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
484950515253Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−4Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 AM+1Closing line49.5
484950515253Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−4Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 AM+1Closing line49.5

Final: 44 points, under the closing total of 49.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET-4
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 1:55 AM ET+1
Closing line49.5

Every Book · Michigan State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+5.5 −107+1882.88 33.3%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
DraftKings+6 −112+1852.85 33.6%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
FanDuel+5.5 −102+1882.88 33.3%48.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetMGM+6 −110+1902.90 33.0%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
Caesars+5.5 −109+1842.84 33.7%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
Fanatics+5.5 −110+1802.80 34.2%48.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers+6 −113+1752.75 34.4%48.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetOnline+5.5 −105+1892.89 33.3%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
Bovada+6 −105+1952.95 32.6%49Sat 3:55 PM
LowVig+5.5 −101+1892.89 33.3%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
MyBookie+6 −110+1942.94 32.4%49Sat 3:55 PM
BetUS+5.5 −105+1852.85 33.8%49Sat 3:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.