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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 2:00 PM ET · Final Northern Illinois 14, Georgia State 35

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

Georgia State −8.5 at our first look, −8.5 at kickoff. Mountain West vs. Sun Belt.

Conditions · Center Parc Stadium: At kickoff: 79°F, wind 7 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Northern Illinois 0.0 · Georgia State 0.0. Market: line unchanged.

Landed: Northern Illinois 14, Georgia State 35. Georgia State covered the closing line (Georgia State −8.5). 49 points, under the closing total of 56.5.

Northern Illinois Huskies 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Georgia State Panthers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Georgia State lineGeorgia State Panthers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Georgia State.
−10−9−8Opening line−8.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−1.5Market move, no reported newsWed 5:55 AM+1.5Closing line−8.5
−10−9−8Opening line−8.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−1.5Market move, no reported newsWed 5:55 AM+1.5Closing line−8.5

Final: Northern Illinois 14, Georgia State 35. Georgia State beat the closing number by 12.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−8.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET-1.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 23, 5:55 AM ET+1.5
Closing line−8.5
What moved the Georgia State moneylineGeorgia State Panthers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Georgia State.
−285−317−355Opening line−297Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−369Market move, no reported newsWed 5:55 AM−297Price-only move−279Closing line−279
−285−317−355Opening line−297Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−369Market move, no reported newsWed 5:55 AM−297Price-only move−279Closing line−279
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line74.8% (−297)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET78.7% (−369)
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 23, 5:55 AM ET74.8% (−297)
Price-only move73.6% (−279)
Closing line73.6% (−279)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
54555657Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 PM+1Closing line56.5
54555657Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 PM+1Closing line56.5

Final: 49 points, under the closing total of 56.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 7:55 PM ET+1
Closing line56.5

Every Book · Georgia State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−8.5 −110−3351.30 73.6%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−8.5 −110−3451.29 74.4%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−9.5 −106−3351.30 73.8%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−8.5 −108−3251.31 73.4%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−10 −112−3801.26 75.8%55.5Mon 11:55 AM
Fanatics−10 −110−4001.25 76.6%55.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers−9 −110−4201.24 76.8%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−8.5 −105−3251.31 73.5%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−9 −110−3701.27 75.2%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−8.5 −106−3251.31 73.5%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−9 −110−3401.29 73.6%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−8.5 −110−3251.31 73.6%56.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.