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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Friday, September 25, 8:00 PM ET · Final Northwestern 23, Indiana 29

Northwestern at 7Indiana

Indiana −23.5 at our first look, −20.5 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN): At kickoff: 64°F, wind 3 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Northwestern 0.0 · Indiana 0.0. Market: moved 3 toward Northwestern.

Landed: Northwestern 23, Indiana 29. Northwestern covered the closing line (Indiana −20.5). The move toward Northwestern was right. 52 points, over the closing total of 49.5.

Northwestern Wildcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Indiana Hoosiers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Indiana lineIndiana Hoosiers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Indiana.
−24−23−22−21−20Opening line−23.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2.5Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line−20.5
−24−23−22−21−20Opening line−23.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2.5Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line−20.5

Final: Northwestern 23, Indiana 29. Indiana missed the closing number by 14.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−23.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET+2.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 3:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−20.5
What moved the Indiana moneylineIndiana Hoosiers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Indiana.
−1011−1150−1329−1567Opening line−1462Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−1462Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 PM−1462Price-only move−1024Closing line−1024
−1011−1150−1329−1567Opening line−1462Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−1462Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 PM−1462Price-only move−1024Closing line−1024
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line93.6% (−1462)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET93.6% (−1462)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 3:55 PM ET93.6% (−1462)
Price-only move91.1% (−1024)
Closing line91.1% (−1024)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
47484950Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+2Closing line49.5
47484950Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+2Closing line49.5

Final: 52 points, over the closing total of 49.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line47.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 3:55 PM ET+2
Closing line49.5

Every Book · Indiana side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−20.5 −110−18001.06 91.1%49.5Fri 7:55 PM
DraftKings−20.5 −110−16501.06 90.8%49.5Fri 7:55 PM
FanDuel−20.5 −106−17001.06 90.3%49.5Fri 7:55 PM
BetMGM−20.5 −108−16001.06 91.5%49.5Fri 7:55 PM
Caesars−20.5 −113−17001.06 90.8%49.5Fri 7:55 PM
Fanatics−20.5 −110−18001.06 91.6%50.5Fri 7:55 PM
BetRivers−20.5 −113−25001.04 91.4%49.5Fri 7:55 PM
BetOnline−20.5 −113−18001.06 91.1%49.5Fri 7:55 PM
Bovada−20.5 −115−19001.05 90.5%50Fri 7:55 PM
LowVig−20.5 −109−18001.06 91.1%49.5Fri 7:55 PM
MyBookie−20.5 −110−20391.05 90.8%49.5Fri 7:55 PM
BetUS−20.5 −110−18001.06 91.2%49.5Fri 7:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.