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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 3:30 PM ET · Final Ole Miss 28, Florida 52

9Ole Miss at 16Florida

Florida −1.5 at our first look, −4 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium: At kickoff: 83°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Ole Miss 0.0 · Florida 0.0. Market: moved 2.5 toward Florida.

Landed: Ole Miss 28, Florida 52. Florida covered the closing line (Florida −4). The move toward Florida was right. 80 points, over the closing total of 59.

Ole Miss Rebels 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Florida Gators 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Florida lineFlorida Gators spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Florida.
−4−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−1.5Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−1Closing line−4
−4−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−1.5Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−1Closing line−4

Final: Ole Miss 28, Florida 52. Florida beat the closing number by 20.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−1.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET-1.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 22, 9:55 AM ET-1
Closing line−4
What moved the Florida moneylineFlorida Gators moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Florida.
−100−108−117−127−138−150−163Opening line−104Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−122Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−162Closing line−160
−100−108−117−127−138−150−163Opening line−104Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−122Market move, no reported newsTue 9:55 AM−162Closing line−160
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.1% (−104)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET54.9% (−122)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 22, 9:55 AM ET61.8% (−162)
Closing line61.5% (−160)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
575859Opening line57.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2Closing line59
575859Opening line57.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+2Closing line59

Final: 80 points, over the closing total of 59.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line57.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 19, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET+2
Closing line59

Every Book · Florida side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−4 −110−1781.56 61.5%59Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−4 −108−1701.59 60.4%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−3.5 −112−1841.54 62.0%59.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−4 −110−1851.54 61.9%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−4 −108−1761.57 61.2%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−3.5 −115−1801.56 61.6%59Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−3.5 −108−1821.55 61.3%59Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−4 −110−1761.57 61.8%59Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−3.5 −120−1751.57 61.4%59Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−3.5 −110−1891.53 62.2%59Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−4 −110−1751.57 61.4%59.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.