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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 7:30 PM ET · Final Oregon 41, USC 27

13Oregon at 19USC

USC +2.5 at our first look, +3.5 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum: At kickoff: 85°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Oregon 0.0 · USC 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Oregon.

Landed: Oregon 41, USC 27. Oregon covered the closing line (USC +3.5). The move toward Oregon was right. 68 points, over the closing total of 60.5.

Oregon Ducks 0.0

No news that moves the number.

USC Trojans 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the USC lineUSC Trojans spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against USC.
−1PK+1+2+3+4Opening line+2.5Market move, no reported newsTue 3:55 PM−3Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+4Closing line+3.5
−1PK+1+2+3+4Opening line+2.5Market move, no reported newsTue 3:55 PM−3Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+4Closing line+3.5

Final: Oregon 41, USC 27. USC missed the closing number by 10.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+2.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 15, 3:55 PM ET-3
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET+4
Closing line+3.5
What moved the USC moneylineUSC Trojans moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward USC.
+163+150+138+127+117Opening line+121Market move, no reported newsTue 3:55 PM+115Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+159Price-only move+165Closing line+165
+163+150+138+127+117Opening line+121Market move, no reported newsTue 3:55 PM+115Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+159Price-only move+165Closing line+165
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line45.2% (+121)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 15, 3:55 PM ET46.5% (+115)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET38.6% (+159)
Price-only move37.7% (+165)
Closing line37.7% (+165)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
58596061Opening line60.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−2Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+2Closing line60.5
58596061Opening line60.5Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−2Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+2Closing line60.5

Final: 68 points, over the closing total of 60.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line60.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 18, 11:55 AM ET-2
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 19, 7:55 PM ET+2
Closing line60.5

Every Book · USC side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3.5 −110+1552.55 37.7%60.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings+3.5 −110+1542.54 37.8%60.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel+3.5 −110+1422.42 39.5%60.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM+3.5 −105+1502.50 38.1%60.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars+3.5 −112+1552.55 37.7%60.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics+3.5 −105+1552.55 37.4%61Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers+3.5 −112+1432.43 39.0%61Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline+3.5 −108+1612.61 37.1%59.5Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada+4 −115+1652.65 36.3%60.5Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig+3.5 −104+1612.61 37.1%59.5Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie+3.5 −110+1472.47 38.5%60Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS+3.5 −110+1592.59 37.3%60Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.