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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 12:00 PM ET · Final San Diego State 16, Toledo 41

San Diego State at Toledo

Toledo +2.5 at our first look, −2.5 at kickoff. Pac-12 vs. Mid-American.

Conditions · Glass Bowl: At kickoff: 66°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: San Diego State 0.0 · Toledo 0.0. Market: moved 5 toward Toledo.

Landed: San Diego State 16, Toledo 41. Toledo covered the closing line (Toledo −2.5). The move toward Toledo was right. 57 points, over the closing total of 50.5.

San Diego State Aztecs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Toledo Rockets 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Toledo lineToledo Rockets spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Toledo.
−3−2−1PK+1+2+3Opening line+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−5.5Market move, no reported newsSat 7:55 AM+0.5Closing line−2.5
−2PK+2Opening line+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−5.5Market move, no reported newsSat 7:55 AM+0.5Closing line−2.5

Final: San Diego State 16, Toledo 41. Toledo beat the closing number by 22.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+2.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET-5.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 7:55 AM ET+0.5
Closing line−2.5
What moved the Toledo moneylineToledo Rockets moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Toledo.
+122−100−122Opening line+120Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−133Market move, no reported newsSat 7:55 AM−125Closing line−125
+122−100−122Opening line+120Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−133Market move, no reported newsSat 7:55 AM−125Closing line−125
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line45.4% (+120)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET57.1% (−133)
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 7:55 AM ET55.6% (−125)
Closing line55.5% (−125)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
495051Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+1Closing line50.5
495051Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+1Closing line50.5

Final: 57 points, over the closing total of 50.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET+1
Closing line50.5

Every Book · Toledo side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −110−1381.72 55.5%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−2.5 −118−1351.74 55.1%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−2.5 −114−1381.72 55.5%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−2.5 −115−1401.71 55.6%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−2.5 −110−1341.75 55.1%48.5Mon 11:55 AM
Fanatics−3 −105−1451.69 56.6%51Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers−3 −107−1481.68 56.5%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−2.5 −110−1361.74 55.5%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−3 +100−1401.71 56.2%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−2.5 −112−1361.74 55.5%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−3 −110−1441.69 56.3%50.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−2.5 −110−1351.74 55.3%50.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.