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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 5:00 PM ET · Final South Florida 14, Bowling Green 6

South Florida at Bowling Green

Bowling Green +14.5 at our first look, +18.5 at kickoff. American Athletic vs. Mid-American.

Conditions · Doyt L. Perry Stadium: At kickoff: 72°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: South Florida 0.0 · Bowling Green 0.0. Market: moved 4 toward South Florida.

Landed: South Florida 14, Bowling Green 6. Bowling Green covered the closing line (Bowling Green +18.5). The move toward South Florida was wrong. 20 points, under the closing total of 49.

South Florida Bulls 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Bowling Green Falcons 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Bowling Green lineBowling Green Falcons spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Bowling Green.
+14+15+16+17+18+19Opening line+14.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+3Market move, no reported newsSat 7:55 AM+1Closing line+18.5
+14+15+16+17+18+19Opening line+14.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+3Market move, no reported newsSat 7:55 AM+1Closing line+18.5

Final: South Florida 14, Bowling Green 6. Bowling Green beat the closing number by 10.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+14.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET+3
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 7:55 AM ET+1
Closing line+18.5
What moved the Bowling Green moneylineBowling Green Falcons moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Bowling Green.
+733+669+614+567Opening line+558Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+558Market move, no reported newsSat 7:55 AM+558Price-only move+720Closing line+720
+733+669+614+567Opening line+558Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+558Market move, no reported newsSat 7:55 AM+558Price-only move+720Closing line+720
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line15.2% (+558)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET15.2% (+558)
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 7:55 AM ET15.2% (+558)
Price-only move12.2% (+720)
Closing line12.2% (+720)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
495051525354Opening line53.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−1Closing line49
495051525354Opening line53.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−1Closing line49

Final: 20 points, under the closing total of 49.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line53.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET-3.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 1:55 PM ET-1
Closing line49

Every Book · Bowling Green side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+18.5 −110+6867.86 12.2%49Sat 3:55 PM
DraftKings+18.5 −115+6757.75 12.4%48.5Sat 3:55 PM
FanDuel+18.5 −114+6807.80 12.3%48.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetMGM+18 −108+7008.00 12.1%48.5Sat 3:55 PM
Caesars+17.5 −108+6757.75 12.4%49.5Mon 11:55 AM
Fanatics+17.5 −110+6507.50 12.8%49Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers+18.5 −110+8009.00 10.5%49.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetOnline+18.5 −114+6867.86 12.2%49Sat 3:55 PM
Bovada+18 −110+6257.25 13.2%49Sat 3:55 PM
LowVig+18.5 −110+6867.86 12.2%49Sat 3:55 PM
MyBookie+18.5 −110+6807.80 12.2%49Sat 3:55 PM
BetUS+18.5 −110+7008.00 12.0%49Sat 3:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.