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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 3:30 PM ET · Final TCU 13, UCF 21

TCU at UCF

UCF +3.5 at our first look, +3 at kickoff. Big 12 game.

Conditions · FBC Mortgage Stadium: At kickoff: 82°F, wind 9 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: TCU 0.0 · UCF 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward UCF.

Landed: TCU 13, UCF 21. UCF covered the closing line (UCF +3). The move toward UCF was right. 34 points, under the closing total of 48.

TCU Horned Frogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

UCF Knights 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the UCF lineUCF Knights spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against UCF.
+3+4Opening line+3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line+3
+3+4Opening line+3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line+3

Final: TCU 13, UCF 21. UCF beat the closing number by 11.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+3.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line+3
What moved the UCF moneylineUCF Knights moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward UCF.
+150+138+127Opening line+151Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+123Less than the spread implies+142Closing line+142
+150+138+127Opening line+151Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+123Less than the spread implies+142Closing line+142
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line39.8% (+151)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET44.8% (+123)
Less than the spread implies41.3% (+142)
Closing line41.3% (+142)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4849505152Opening line51.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1.5Closing line48
4849505152Opening line51.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1.5Closing line48

Final: 34 points, under the closing total of 48.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 5:55 PM ET-1.5
Closing line48

Every Book · UCF side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3 −108+1322.32 41.3%48Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings+3 −108+1362.36 40.7%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel+3.5 −120+1302.30 41.6%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM+3 −108+1302.30 41.7%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars+3 −108+1342.34 41.0%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics+3.5 −120+1352.35 40.9%48.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers+3 −107+1302.30 41.3%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline+3 −106+1372.37 40.9%48Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada+3 −110+1302.30 42.0%48Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig+3 −102+1372.37 40.9%48Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie+3 −110+1302.30 41.4%48Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS+3 −105+1342.34 41.3%48Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.