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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 7:30 PM ET · Final Texas A&M 6, LSU 35

Texas A&M at 10LSU

LSU −3 at our first look, −8.5 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Tiger Stadium (LA): At kickoff: 86°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Texas A&M 0.0 · LSU 0.0. Market: moved 5.5 toward LSU.

Landed: Texas A&M 6, LSU 35. LSU covered the closing line (LSU −8.5). The move toward LSU was right. 41 points, under the closing total of 52.

Texas A&M Aggies 0.0

No news that moves the number.

LSU Tigers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the LSU lineLSU Tigers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against LSU.
−9−8−7−6−5−4−3Opening line−3Market move, no reported newsWed 7:55 PM−1Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−4.5Closing line−8.5
−8−6−4Opening line−3Market move, no reported newsWed 7:55 PM−1Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−4.5Closing line−8.5

Final: Texas A&M 6, LSU 35. LSU beat the closing number by 20.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 7:55 PM ET-1
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET-4.5
Closing line−8.5
What moved the LSU moneylineLSU Tigers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward LSU.
−150−186−233−300−400Opening line−140Market move, no reported newsWed 7:55 PM−189Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−398Less than the spread implies−291Closing line−291
−150−186−233−300−400Opening line−140Market move, no reported newsWed 7:55 PM−189Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−398Less than the spread implies−291Closing line−291
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line58.3% (−140)
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 16, 7:55 PM ET65.4% (−189)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET79.9% (−398)
Less than the spread implies74.4% (−291)
Closing line74.4% (−291)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
52535455565758Opening line57.5Market move, no reported newsWed 5:55 PM−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2Closing line52
52545658Opening line57.5Market move, no reported newsWed 5:55 PM−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2Closing line52

Final: 41 points, under the closing total of 52.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line57.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 2, 5:55 PM ET-3.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET-2
Closing line52

Every Book · LSU side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.4%52Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−8.5 −108−3451.29 74.4%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−8.5 −105−3151.32 72.7%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−8 −110−3251.31 73.9%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−8.5 −107−3451.29 74.4%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.5%52Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers−8.5 −110−3451.29 73.3%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−8 −110−3501.29 74.7%52Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−8.5 −110−3601.28 74.8%52Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−8 −106−3501.29 74.7%52Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.2%52Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.7%52Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.